[AKYUNG Poll] 'Head-to-Head' Hong Joon-pyo 46.6% VS Lee Jae-myung 39.3%... Hong Leads Beyond Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Kum Bo-ryeong] In a hypothetical one-on-one contest between Hong Jun-pyo of the People Power Party and Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, Hong recorded a support rate 7.3 percentage points higher than Lee, showing a lead beyond the margin of error.

When asked, "If the next presidential election is between Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Hong Jun-pyo, whom would you support?" 46.6% responded they would support Hong, while 39.3% supported Lee. "Other candidates" accounted for 7.5%, "None" 5.7%, and "Don't know" 0.7%.

Compared to the previous survey (second week of September), Hong's support rose by 0.5 percentage points, while Lee's fell by 0.9 percentage points, widening the gap between the two candidates.

Lee led among those in their 40s with a support rate of 57.9%. Conversely, Hong received positive evaluations from those aged 18-29 (52.5%), 30s (51.5%), and 60 and above (49.8%).

By region, Lee received stronger support in Honam areas such as Gwangju, Jeonbuk, and Jeonnam (69.1%), while Hong was more favored in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (63.4%), Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (54.7%), Seoul (45.1%), and Gyeonggi and Incheon (48.7%).

Supporters of the Democratic Party and the Open Democratic Party showed 74.4% and 81.6% support for Lee, respectively. Among People Power Party supporters, 78% chose Hong.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over from the 25th to 26th, with 1,016 respondents and an overall response rate of 8.4%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.