Yoon Seok-yeol and Hong Joon-pyo Lead Lee Jae-myung in One-on-One Contest

Yoon Seok-yeol 43.1% vs Lee Jae-myung 37%
Hong Joon-pyo 38.2% vs Lee Jae-myung 35.6%

[Photo by Asia Economy DB]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] A poll has revealed that opposition presidential candidates former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo both lead in one-on-one matchups against ruling party candidate Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung.

According to a 'One-on-One Matchup Survey of Leading Presidential Candidates from Both Parties' conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Newsis from the 22nd to 23rd among 1,021 adult men and women nationwide, former Prosecutor General Yoon's approval rating stood at 43.1%, slightly ahead of Governor Lee's 37% within the margin of error.

Lawmaker Hong also recorded 38.2% in a one-on-one matchup against Governor Lee, surpassing Lee's 35.6% within the margin of error.

The gap in approval ratings between former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee was 6.1 percentage points, while the gap between Lawmaker Hong and Governor Lee was 2.6 percentage points, indicating that Yoon was more competitive against Lee than Hong.

Former Prosecutor General Yoon led Governor Lee in all regions except Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, and in all age groups except those in their 40s. In Seoul, Yoon's support was 9.7 percentage points higher, and among women, he led Lee by 6.9 percentage points. Among centrists, Yoon was ahead by 9.4 percentage points, and among self-employed individuals, he led by 19.2 percentage points.

Lawmaker Hong received higher support than Governor Lee in Seoul, among men, and in the 20s and 30s age groups. Notably, he led by 26.5 percentage points among those in their 20s and by 18.9 percentage points among those in their 30s. Among men, he was ahead by 8.3 percentage points, and among centrists, he led by 11.7 percentage points.

In the multi-candidate race, the leading candidates from both parties, former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee, were in a tight contest. Yoon ranked first with 26.9%, Lee second with 25.2%, Lawmaker Hong third with 16.8%, and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon fourth with 12.5%. Following them were former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae (3.1%), former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (2.6%), former Liberty Korea Party (predecessor of People Power Party) leader Hwang Kyo-ahn (2.1%), People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (2.1%), and former Board of Audit and Inspection chief Choi Jae-hyung (1.6%).

The sample error of this survey is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied by gender, age group, and region using rim weighting based on the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's resident registration population statistics as of August 2021. The survey was conducted via automated response system (ARS) with 10% landline and 90% mobile phone respondents, with a response rate of 3.8%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.