Tight Race in Polls: Why Are Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl Swapping 1st and 2nd Places?

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] An analysis has emerged suggesting that the phenomenon of the leading candidate for the next presidential election changing depending on the public opinion poll method is influenced by the tendencies of respondents represented by each polling method. In the case of Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate from the People Power Party, he shows an advantage in automated response telephone surveys (ARS), whereas Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate from the Democratic Party and Governor of Gyeonggi Province, is dominant in interviewer-conducted telephone surveys.

On the 23rd, Park Si-young, CEO of the polling firm WinG Korea Consulting, appeared on TBS Radio’s ‘Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory’ to explain the phenomenon where the rankings of the top two candidates for the next presidential election differ despite the polls being conducted at nearly the same time.

Previously, a poll commissioned by TBS to the Korean Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) (conducted on the 17th-18th, nationwide, 1,004 respondents aged 18 and over, confidence level 95%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points, ARS method) showed former Prosecutor General Yoon leading Lee with 28.8% to 23.6% within the margin of error. Conversely, a poll commissioned by KBS to Korea Research (conducted on the 16th-18th, nationwide, 1,000 respondents aged 18 and over, confidence level 95%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points, telephone interviewer survey) recorded Lee at 27.8%, surpassing Yoon’s 18.8% by more than the margin of error, placing Lee first. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

As the first and second place rankings differed by polling agency, confusion arose regarding whether the polls truly represent public opinion.

CEO Park explained, "In the case of ARS, highly engaged groups (people very interested in politics) tend to respond actively," adding, "The core conservative supporters are much more activated, so Yoon is expected to have an advantage for the time being."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

He further explained, "For Lee, among the low-engagement groups, which are more passive supporters, his approval rating is overwhelmingly high." In ARS, where response rates are low and politically interested people are more actively represented, conservatives respond actively; however, in interviewer-conducted surveys, where the opinions of people with lower political interest are reflected, the results differ. ARS has a low response rate to calls, whereas telephone interviewer surveys have a higher response rate.

Park said, "There is a middle level of engagement?people who are interested in politics but don’t watch political news all the time?and in this group, Lee is advantageous," explaining that "(the support bases of Yoon and Lee) are separated."