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[Asia Economy Reporter Sohyeon Park] Byungyeol Kwak, a researcher at Leading Investment & Securities, stated, "I have discovered the leading nature of Amazon's stock price over the KOSPI index."

According to the financial investment industry on the 22nd, researcher Kwak mentioned in a recent report, "Amazon's stock price leads the KOSPI index by 5 months," adding, "Based on a lag correlation analysis using month-end closing prices since 2015, it was found that Amazon's stock price leads the KOSPI index by approximately 5 months."

Researcher Kwak estimated that this result likely stems from the supply chain relationship between Amazon and major domestic export companies. He stated, "The online store-third party intermediary segment, which accounts for most of Amazon's sales, and the cloud segment, which makes up about 10%, can gauge the near-future order levels of domestic export companies (such as semiconductors), so it is reasonable to infer a close leading relationship in stock prices."

In other words, if Amazon's stock price rose 5 months ago, it indicates a tendency where the expectation of improved exports by domestic companies, following Amazon's sales growth potential, appears as a stock price improvement with a time lag.

He hinted, "Since 2015, if Amazon's monthly return was positive 5 months before the Chuseok holiday, the KOSPI monthly return during the Chuseok holiday month also recorded a positive return in the same direction. This consistent directional pattern was observed all six times from 2015 to 2020."

He added, "Amazon's monthly return in April 2021, which is 5 months ago from now, was +12%, so the current September, which includes the Chuseok holiday, is expected to record a positive monthly return."

Amazon's monthly returns were -7.04% in May, 6.73% in June, -3.27% in July, 4.30% in August, and -0.39% as of September 13, showing a period-adjustment phase alternating between one month of strength and one month of weakness. When estimating this for the KOSPI index 5 months later, it is forecasted that a box range market with a period-adjustment pattern will likely continue until the end of the year.