[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] After the Holidays, the North-South Missile Competition Resumes

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As the arms race involving missiles between South and North Korea unfolds, attention is focusing on the possibility of additional provocations by North Korea after the Chuseok holiday. This is because North Korea may take some form of ‘action’ to mark the Supreme People's Assembly (equivalent to the National Assembly) on the 28th or the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea on the 10th of next month.

Recently, North Korea launched a cruise missile. In particular, through the cruise missile launch, it flaunted that it had secured a jet engine, which it had not been able to develop until now. Moreover, North Korea extended the range of its cruise missiles to 1,500 km, capable of reaching all of South Korea and Japan, seemingly mocking the assessment by South Korean and U.S. military authorities that ‘North Korean cruise missiles are not threatening.’

In response, on the 15th, the Agency for Defense Development conducted the first-ever domestic submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launch test at the comprehensive test site, attended by President Moon Jae-in and Defense Minister Suh Wook. The SLBM was launched underwater from the Dosan Ahn Changho-class 3,000-ton submarine, built with domestic technology, and successfully hit the target. Additionally, the Agency for Defense Development announced successes on the same day in aircraft separation tests of long-range air-to-ground missiles, development of high-yield ballistic missiles with significantly increased warhead weight, development of supersonic cruise missiles, and combustion tests of solid propulsion engines for space launch vehicles.

North Korea responded again with ballistic missiles. It has justified its weapons development by referring to the South Korean military’s weapons development.

This missile competition is expected to continue repeatedly. On the 28th, at the Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea’s highest sovereign body under the constitution, Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, may attend in person and reveal the national defense strategy. Kim delivered a policy speech as Chairman of the State Affairs Commission at the 1st session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly in April 2019.

The Workers' Party founding anniversary on the 10th of next month is also a noteworthy date. This year marks the 76th anniversary of the party’s founding, which is not a so-called milestone year (years divisible by 5 or 10). However, instead of a conciliatory message, North Korea may mention SLBMs and new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) weapons.

As North Korea continues its weapons development competition, it appears to be putting a brake on this administration’s efforts toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and a declaration of the end of the war for peace. By accelerating the development of new weapons and continuing its criticism of the South, the improvement of inter-Korean relations may become even more difficult.