Missile Launch Spiral Between North and South Korea, Will Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Intensify?

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] With North and South Korea consecutively launching missiles, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to intensify further.

On the 15th, the missile test launches by both North and South Korea have brought the already strained inter-Korean relations to an even greater crisis.

There are criticisms that President Moon Jae-in's goal of resuming the Korean Peninsula peace process has become virtually impossible due to North Korea's refusal to engage in dialogue.

Recently, North and South Korea have been moving toward a hardline stance rather than dialogue mode. Although the two Koreas marked the 3rd anniversary of the Pyongyang Joint Declaration reached at the September 2018 Pyongyang Summit, relations have since cooled.

In the Pyongyang Joint Declaration, both Koreas agreed to end military hostile acts in 'confrontation areas,' including the Demilitarized Zone, to eliminate the risk of war. More concrete measures were also agreed upon through the September 19 Military Agreement.

However, four days before the 3rd anniversary of the Pyongyang Joint Declaration, on the 15th, both Koreas launched new weapons systems and conducted large-scale propaganda, staging a 'military arms race.'

North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles that can be launched from trains. It also established a new unit called the Railway Mobile Missile Regiment and previously launched long-range cruise missiles, demonstrating a gradual increase in the power of its 'nuclear tactics.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Our military also showcased the successful development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), becoming the 7th country in the world to do so. President Moon personally observed the launch and stated that it "enhanced deterrence against North Korean provocations."

However, President Moon's keynote speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly is expected to be a variable in the direction of inter-Korean relations. It is anticipated that President Moon will once again emphasize the importance of inter-Korean dialogue for peace on the Korean Peninsula in his UN speech.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The issue lies in how North Korea will respond. North Korea has strongly opposed the mention of sanctions against it in relation to missile launches at the UN. In particular, it publicly criticized the United States for showing no reaction to South Korea's SLBM launch.

On the afternoon of the 17th, North Korean international affairs commentator Kim Myong-chol wrote, “On the 15th, coincidentally at the same time the explosions were heard on the Korean Peninsula, the United States labeled North Korea’s actions as a threat to the US and the international community, while remaining silent about South Korea’s actions.”

Experts believe that the possibility of easing inter-Korean relations in the near future is low. With ongoing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea’s declaration of self-reliance early last year, coupled with the COVID-19 situation, the prospects for inter-Korean dialogue and exchanges have further diminished.

North Korea has strengthened the principle of self-reliance by establishing a new five-year national economic development plan this year. Following the party congress in January, North Korea set a new national policy and is focusing internally on shifting the social atmosphere back to a more conservative stance.

Only last week did North Korea belatedly reveal the establishment of a new five-year plan to strengthen national defense. As declared at this year’s party congress, it is expected to continue military actions to enhance new strategic weapons.

Some interpret that North Korea is leaving room for resuming North Korea-US and inter-Korean talks. The reactivation of the Yongbyon plutonium nuclear facility is also seen as a measure considering dialogue and negotiations.

Moreover, North Korea did not respond with an 'ultra-hardline' stance to the South Korea-US joint military exercises and, through a statement by Vice Director Kim Yo-jong, mentioned the possibility of 'complete destruction' of inter-Korean relations while also stating, "We do not desire that."