'Yoon Seok-yeol VS Hong Jun-pyo' Post-Chuseok Primary Round 2, What Are the Prospects?

Variables Are Yoon, Resolving Suspicions and Policies Are Key
Hong's Upward Trend Has Limits, Other Candidates May Emerge

[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] As the People Power Party is conducting an internal primary to select its presidential candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo are competing for first and second place, forming a two-horse race. However, many variables remain before the final candidate is selected, making it difficult to predict the outcome, analysts say.

Recently, Hong's rising momentum has become a factor changing the party's internal dynamics. Before the primary began, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was significantly ahead of other candidates within the party. However, Hong gained strong support among the 2030 male demographic who had supported People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok at the last party convention, rapidly closing the gap with Yoon in various opinion polls. In fact, the first cut-off results announced on the 15th confirmed a close race between Yoon and Hong within the margin of error.

Nonetheless, experts predict that Hong's upward trend has its limits. On the 18th, Professor Park Sang-chul of Kyonggi University Graduate School of Political Studies told Asia Economy, "Although Hong's approval rating has risen, it is limited to specific support groups," adding, "To become the presidential candidate, he must become the dominant choice nationwide, which still seems insufficient." He analyzed, "In the current two-horse race, votes are likely to concentrate on Yoon, who has a thicker support base."

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University Graduate School of Policy also said, "Because Yoon appears unstable, Hong has benefited from the spillover effect," adding, "Since the public already knows who Yoon is, it does not seem easy for Hong to surpass him."

Ultimately, analysts say the primary race will change depending on how Yoon performs during the remaining period. Professor Park Sang-byeong said, "While the ruling party's support is consolidating around Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, the opposition has concerns about Yoon," adding, "How he addresses various controversies and allegations, such as those involving his mother-in-law and the 'prosecution's report' scandal, will determine whether his approval rating rises or falls."

Meanwhile, there is also speculation that another alternative candidate could emerge, as neither Yoon nor Hong has provided a sense of stability in terms of vision and policy. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "If Yoon goes into the general election as he is now, he is likely to be defeated by the opposing candidate in terms of vision and pledges, and Hong still faces significant risks such as verbal slips," adding, "As several debates proceed, the situation could be shaken up. If both candidates weaken, other candidates like former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong could gain attention."

During the remaining primary period, Yoon plans to focus on responding to the 'prosecution's report' allegations, policy planning, and engaging with public sentiment. A spokesperson for Yoon's campaign said, "There was a dip in approval ratings during the verification phase, but ultimately what can overcome this is 'being Yoon Seok-yeol,'" explaining, "We will show the public that we will move forward undeterred by various allegations."

On the other hand, Hong is expected to focus on solidifying the 'dominance theory' among the 2030 generation and expanding his support base. A spokesperson for Hong's campaign said, "Starting from the Chuseok holiday, support centered on the 2030 generation is expected to expand to the 4050 generation and Daegu-Gyeongbuk region," adding, "We feel that the atmosphere on the ground has changed significantly as the support trend shifts."