3 Days Until the Main US-ROK Joint Exercise... Cheong Emphasizes Proceeding as Scheduled

"The ROK-US Joint Exercises Will Proceed as Planned" ... Concerns Over Deteriorating Inter-Korean Relations, North Korea Also Burdened by Military Provocations

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The Blue House is placing emphasis on proceeding with the main phase of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled to begin on the 16th as planned. Despite the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea's successive statements, it is interpreted that making changes to the exercise plan could pose an additional burden.

The main phase of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, the second half Combined Command Post Training (21-2 CCPT), is scheduled to take place from the 16th to the 26th. It is expected that South Korea and the U.S. will jointly announce the timing and scale of the main exercise just before it begins. Following precedent, the schedule and nature of the exercises are likely to be communicated to the North through the North Korea-UN Command direct hotline.

Some within the ruling party argue that President Moon Jae-in should present a solution during his Liberation Day (August 15) commemorative speech, one day before the main exercise begins. In fact, Jeong Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the Democratic Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, publicly stated that President Moon should make the decision to 'postpone the main exercise.'

The view of the Blue House from Namsan, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

However, a senior Blue House official said in a phone interview on the 13th, "We are maintaining our stance of closely monitoring North Korea's movements," and added, "Joint exercises are conducted as planned every time." This is also related to the political nature of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

Deciding to postpone the main exercise could lead to political controversy, including opposition party backlash. However, leaving the tangled situation in inter-Korean relations unattended is also a burden for the Blue House.

If the North continues a confrontational mode by raising issues with the joint exercises, it could become a negative factor for the ruling party ahead of the presidential election season. From the North's perspective, choosing military provocations while considering strategies regarding North Korea-U.S. relations is also a burden, which is another variable.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor in the Department of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said in an interview with BBS Radio's 'Park Kyung-soo's Morning Journal' on the same day, "Military demonstrations could lead to a wrong start in North Korea-U.S. relations, so (North Korea) will be quite cautious," and added, "It is important to finish the exercises at a minimal level and send a signal to move towards dialogue in the next phase."