[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Stumbles, Falls Behind Both Lee and Lee

First Time Both Trailing Simultaneously in Quantum Duel
Conservatives Barely Hold Top Spot in Opposition Suitability

Both Democratic Party Candidates Lee Lee Show Declining Trend

Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was found to be trailing both Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon in hypothetical one-on-one matchups, according to a recent poll. Although the margin is narrow and within the margin of error, this is the first time that Yoon has shown a disadvantage against both candidates. While Yoon still holds the highest support among conservative opposition candidates, his dominance is on the decline.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a poll from the 7th to the 8th of this month targeting 1,006 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). The results showed that Yoon received 41.3% support in a head-to-head matchup against Governor Lee, who garnered 41.8%, trailing by 0.5 percentage points within the margin of error. Compared to the previous poll conducted on July 24-25, Yoon’s support dropped by 2.6 percentage points, while Lee’s declined by 0.6 percentage points. This marks the first time since the fourth week of April that the lead in the one-on-one contest between the two candidates has shifted. In the matchup against former leader Lee Nak-yeon, Yoon has consistently trailed since the second week of July. In this poll, Yoon received 42.6%, falling behind Lee Nak-yeon’s 45.0% by 2.4 percentage points.

Yoon’s support is also significantly declining among conservative opposition presidential candidates. Although he remains in first place with 24.3% support, this is a drop of more than 4 percentage points from the previous poll (28.4%). Meanwhile, support for Representative Hong Joon-pyo (17.3%), former Representative Yoo Seung-min (10.2%), former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung (9.1%), and former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (5.5%) has increased. Although Choi’s support slightly rose from 8.6% in the previous poll, it still remains below double digits.

In the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate suitability poll, both Governor Lee and former leader Lee Nak-yeon showed declining trends. Governor Lee’s support dropped from 35.4% in the previous poll to 33.3%, and Lee Nak-yeon’s fell from 22.4% to 20.6%, decreasing by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively. Despite having signed a ‘One Team Agreement,’ negative exchanges between the two candidates appear to have led to a simultaneous decline in support. Aside from these two candidates, no other candidate has double-digit support, while the undecided voters who said ‘there is no one to support among Democratic candidates’ increased from 16.7% to 21.2%, a rise of 4.5 percentage points.

This poll was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 7th to the 8th of this month targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,006 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.0%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.