All Arctic Ice Melted, Heatwaves and Cold Snaps Become Routine... 20 Years Left to Save the Earth [Reading Science]

The warming Earth. Stock photo. Source=World Meteorological Organization

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The clock to the end of the Earth has been moved forward due to human greed and waste. An analysis has revealed that the time to reach the global average temperature rise limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (compared to pre-industrial levels), set as the deadline in the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, has been shortened by 12 years from the previous estimate of 2052 to 2040. The damage is severe. The heatwaves tormenting the Korean Peninsula throughout July and August, as well as the extreme cold in winter, are expected to become more frequent than before. There is also a forecast that if sea levels reach their maximum rise, low-lying areas in Incheon and Busan could be submerged.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first working group report of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), titled "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis," on the 9th (local time). The IPCC finalized and distributed this report after an online meeting held from the 26th of last month to the 6th of this month, attended by 195 member countries.

The report pointed out that human responsibility for the warming, which is the cause of the current extreme climate on Earth, is "unequivocal." This is a stronger statement than the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, which declared human influence as "clear," clearly attributing the cause to humans and urging countermeasures. The report stated, "Due to pollutants such as greenhouse gases generated by various industrial activities, the Earth's temperature has risen approximately 1.1 degrees since industrialization (1850?1900s)," and predicted that the global average temperature rise will reach 1.5 degrees within the next 20 years. This brought forward the previous prediction of 2052 from the 2018 special report by 12 years. It is seen as a warning to governments worldwide, which have set the goal of "carbon neutrality by 2050," that "this alone is not enough to reverse the trend."

In particular, the report presented five scenarios (SSPs) considering socioeconomic activities such as population, economy, land use, energy consumption, and carbon emission reduction efforts to concretely forecast the future of a warming Earth, and the outlook is bleak. For example, if humans continue to increase industrial activities without strengthening carbon emission reduction efforts (scenario SSP5-8.5), greenhouse gas emissions will double by around 2050?2100, and even in the most optimistic case (SSP1-1.9), carbon neutrality will only be achievable around 2050.

Reference photo. Source=World Meteorological Organization

The analysis also states that a 1.5-degree rise in the global average temperature by 2040 is inevitable under any scenario. Experts predict that the 1.5-degree threshold will already be surpassed by the mid to late 2030s, considering it is an average temperature. If carbon emissions continue at the current rate, the Earth's surface temperature will rise by 4.4 degrees from 2031 to 2100, and only if carbon neutrality is achieved by 2050 is it "very likely" that the rise will be limited to about 1.4 degrees by the end of this century.

The report warns, "Climate change is expected to accelerate in all regions over the coming decades," adding, "A 1.5-degree rise will increase heat waves and warmth while shortening cold seasons, and a 2-degree rise will cause heatwaves to more frequently reach critical thresholds for agriculture and human health." In reality, climate change has already intensified the water cycle, causing increasingly frequent phenomena such as heavy rainfall leading to floods in some areas and severe droughts in others. The report pointed out, "Precipitation is increasing in high-latitude regions and decreasing in subtropical regions, with regional uncertainties growing in monsoon areas."

It also analyzed that rising sea levels due to warming could cause significant damage not only to island nations in the Pacific but also to major coastal cities worldwide. The report predicts that by the end of the 21st century, sea levels will rise about 0.55 meters compared to 1995?2014, and in the worst case, up to 1.01 meters. Even a 0.55-meter rise would submerge most Pacific island nations and partially flood large coastal cities such as Mumbai in India and Shanghai in China. Particularly, if sea levels rise more than 1 meter, low-lying areas in the Korean Peninsula, including Incheon and Busan, could suffer severe flooding damage.

The report also expressed concern over the Arctic warming at more than twice the global average rate. It stated that under all scenarios, the complete melting of Arctic sea ice during summer (September) could occur before 2050. Especially, Arctic warming affects the jet stream, causing the so-called "blocking" phenomenon, which leads to extreme climate intensification such as winter cold waves or summer heatwaves on the Korean Peninsula?issues highly sensitive to the Korean people. Experts analyze that the ongoing heatwave exceeding 33 degrees Celsius for two consecutive months since last month is due to changes in atmospheric pressure caused by the weakening of the jet stream over the Korean Peninsula.

Experts and world leaders have urged, "It is truly time to take action." The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) evaluated this as "a clear demand for immediate measures to reduce greenhouse gases in the face of unprecedentedly accelerating climate change." United Nations Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres also said, "This report is a code red for humanity," adding, "Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation are suffocating the Earth and putting billions of people at immediate risk."

What about South Korea's reality? Recently, the Carbon Neutrality Committee, composed of public and private sectors, announced three scenarios. Although there is much controversy, all three plans maintain industrial sector emissions at 53.1 million tons, drawing criticism that South Korea risks remaining a "carbon gangster" in the international community. The final plan is scheduled to be confirmed in October. As ESG (environment, social, governance) management is emphasized worldwide, the future of humanity, as well as the next 100 years, depends on South Korea's choice.