[Crime Insight] A Total of 1.58 Million Crimes Occurred Last Year... How COVID-19 Changed Crime Patterns

National Police Agency '2020 Crime Statistics' Data
Decrease in Face-to-Face Crimes and Increase in Intelligent Crimes

"1.6 million." This is the approximate number of crimes that occur annually in South Korea. Crime types are diverse, including violent crimes, intellectual crimes, traffic crimes, and cybercrimes, and their methods are increasingly evolving. In a reality where anyone can become a victim, having awareness of crime and knowing prevention measures can minimize damage. In , we analyze major domestic crime patterns based on the latest cases and cover prevention, response methods, and policy changes. This week's topic examines major crime trends based on the recent 'Crime Statistics' published by the National Police Agency.

National Police Agency, National Investigation Headquarters.

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-ju] The National Police Agency publishes 'Crime Statistics' around August every year. Since 2007, it has been designated as a national approved statistic and is published annually, providing valuable data that comprehensively covers crimes occurring domestically throughout the year. It allows a quick overview of key crime indicators such as total crime occurrences and arrests, crime types, as well as detailed categories of suspects and victims by age and gender.

Considerable police effort goes into publishing such detailed data. Analyzing and quantifying individual case types takes significant time, so the previous year's statistics are finalized and announced only in the second half of the following year (August). The police conduct basic work such as correcting statistical errors from February to May each year, followed by data editing and analysis from June to July. Since about 1.6 million crimes occur annually, all of these are analyzed.

The resulting police crime statistics are provided as foundational data for policy research to the National Assembly, other government departments, and research institutions, and are also crucial for establishing police security policies. Especially in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, their value as 'big data' is very high. The National Police Agency's '2020 Crime Statistics' was published on the 2nd of this month, and based on this, we will analyze recent domestic crime trends.

Last year, total crimes reached 1.58 million... Jeju has the highest crime rate per population

The first thing visible in the crime statistics is the overall crime figures. The total number of crimes occurring domestically last year was 1,587,866, with an incidence rate of 3,063 cases per 100,000 people. The most frequent crime type was intellectual crimes, accounting for 424,642 cases. This was followed by traffic crimes with 348,725 cases, violent crimes with 265,768 cases, and theft crimes with 179,517 cases. Violent crimes that threaten citizens' lives and bodies (murder, robbery, rape, arson) totaled 24,332 cases.

The number of arrests was 1,289,129, and the number of arrestees was 1,696,350, resulting in an arrest rate of 81.2% relative to occurrences. Some may question whether an arrest rate in the 80% range is insufficient, but this is due to differences in arrest rates by crime type. While some cases can be solved quickly, others like intellectual crimes such as fraud and embezzlement require more time for investigation and arrest, so this is not a low level. In fact, violent crimes (murder, robbery, rape, arson) have an arrest rate of 96.8%, and traffic crimes reach 97.5%.

Partial data from the '2020 Crime Statistics'.

What about by region? As expected, crimes are heavily concentrated in the metropolitan areas of Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, which have large populations. Gyeonggi recorded 394,226 cases, Seoul 296,178 cases, and Incheon 88,143 cases, together accounting for 50.5% of all crimes. Outside the metropolitan area, Busan had the highest number with 113,652 cases, followed by Gyeongnam with 97,998 cases, Gyeongbuk with 73,762 cases, and Daegu with 72,373 cases. The regions with the smallest populations, Sejong and Jeju, recorded 6,276 and 27,129 cases respectively, the lowest among local governments nationwide.

However, when converted to crime incidence per 100,000 population, the results differ. Jeju ranks first nationwide with 4,021.3 cases. This is interpreted as reflecting regional characteristics such as a higher actual resident population than the registered population due to tourists, and a high proportion of traffic crimes like rental car accidents. Next are Busan (3,350.6 cases), Seoul (3,063.3 cases), Daejeon (3,048.3 cases), and Gwangju (3,001 cases). Since the autonomous police system was fully implemented from July this year, it seems important to analyze detailed crime indicators and establish tailored prevention measures by region.

COVID-19 changed crime patterns

The impact of COVID-19, which caused a global infectious disease crisis, was clearly reflected in last year's crimes. First, all face-to-face crimes decreased compared to 2019. Violent crimes decreased by 8.0%, theft crimes by 4.0%, and violent crimes by 7.7%. Traffic crimes also decreased by about 7.6%. Although the decrease rate in traffic crimes is similar to other face-to-face crimes, the total number dropped by over 30,000 cases, indicating a reduction in movement due to COVID-19.

Where there is light, there is shadow. Intellectual crimes, a representative non-face-to-face crime type such as fraud, increased sharply. Despite the overall decline in crimes, they rose by double digits at 11.2%. In other words, crimes targeting 'money' increased. Especially, fraud crimes have increasingly drawn criticism as malicious crimes that hurt ordinary citizens. Fraud and embezzlement crimes are also the main factors lowering the overall arrest rate. Last year, the arrest rates were only 68.3% for fraud and 47.3% for embezzlement.

Considering the increase rate alone, drug crimes cannot be ignored. Last year, drug crimes totaled 9,186 cases, up by over 1,000 from 8,038 cases in 2019. The increase rate was 14.2%, higher than intellectual crimes. This is attributed to increased covert transactions using online platforms, especially the dark web and secure messengers. In the first half of this year alone, 5,108 drug offenders were arrested, suggesting the number may increase further including the second half.

Police crime statistics data posted on the National Police Agency website.

Proportion of offenders aged 60 and over increasing... habitual offenders with five or more prior convictions

Let's also look at offender characteristics. By gender, males accounted for 1,174,763 people (78.6%), and females 319,658 people (21.4%), with more male offenders. This trend has been consistent over the past five years, although the proportion of female offenders has increased from 18.8% in 2016.

By age, those in their 50s were the largest group with 344,916 people (23.2%), followed by those in their 40s with 312,965 people (21.0%), 20s with 278,320 people (18.7%), 30s with 252,843 people (17.0%), and those aged 60 and over with 236,660 people (15.8%). Over the past five years, the proportions of those in their 30s and 40s have gradually decreased, while the proportion of the elderly aged 60 and over has increased. This appears to be a natural phenomenon reflecting the growing population of those aged 60 and above.

The crime statistics also reveal a "vicious cycle of crime." Among those arrested last year, 43.9% had prior convictions. By crime type, the proportion of repeat offenders was highest in theft crimes at 55.5%, followed by violent crimes (47.4%), assault crimes (46.9%), and traffic crimes (40.3%). Notably, habitual offenders with five or more prior convictions accounted for 44.2% of repeat offenders, indicating that the cycle of crime is not being broken and offenders are repeatedly committing crimes. By crime type, the proportion of offenders with five or more prior convictions was highest in assault crimes at 47.8%, followed by theft crimes (46.9%) and violent crimes (42.0%).

The police crime statistics boast a vast volume of 153 items across six chapters. This time, we only mentioned key statistics focusing on occurrence numbers, but within it are detailed contents such as crime methods and locations, clues for arrests, suspects' detention or release status, victims' degree of harm, and analysis of major indicator crimes. We hope that these annually released statistics will not be a mere "list of numbers." Their value will be enhanced if they are used as foundational data to predict the likelihood of major future crimes and to establish prevention policies based on big data.