[Politics, That Day...] September 2002 Lee Hoi-chang 53.3%, Roh Moo-hyun 9.8%

Fivefold Difference in Winning Chances Three Months Before Presidential Election: Can Election Polls Be Trusted?
Jung Mong-jun's Rapid Rise Since the 2002 World Cup Fever... Presidential Race Descends into Chaos

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

To what extent should we trust the public’s presidential election predictions shown in opinion polls? Hypothetical matchups show the superiority and support rate differences between Candidate A and Candidate B. Predictions about the likelihood of winning refer to the election forecast results that people think, regardless of their support for a specific candidate.

If the opinion that a particular candidate will win appears in the majority of regions and generations, it is a variable that cannot be ignored. The perception that a specific candidate will win inevitably influences actual voting behavior.

Supporters of a certain candidate become more enthusiastic and turn out to vote, while supporters of other candidates may lose their will to vote. The problem is that the results indicating a high possibility of a specific candidate’s victory (mostly based on opinion poll results) may diverge from the actual grassroots public sentiment.

This is a nightmare scenario for polling experts but a scene often encountered in South Korean politics.

Like in sports, in politics, only the ‘winner’ is often remembered. Most people do not know the process leading up to the final result, and in fact, they are not very interested.

It is well known that the 2002 presidential election ended with the victory of the Democratic Party’s Roh Moo-hyun, the protagonist of the national primary drama. Then, was Roh Moo-hyun’s victory a result that no one doubted?

Looking at the opinion poll results conducted three months before the election in September 2002, one might think differently.

Korea Gallup conducted a ‘National Opinion Poll on Presidential Candidate Support Rates’ commissioned by Chosun Ilbo. On September 22, 2002, a telephone survey was conducted nationwide targeting 1,054 voters aged 20 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The Korea Gallup poll at that time asked, “Regardless of whom you support, among the presidential candidates mentioned?Lee Hoi-chang, Roh Moo-hyun, Chung Mong-joon, Kwon Young-ghil, and Lee Han-dong?who do you think will be elected president?”

The result showed a one-sided advantage for a specific candidate.

The percentage choosing Lee Hoi-chang was as high as 53.3%, followed by Chung Mong-joon at 14.4%, and Roh Moo-hyun at 9.8%. This means that those who believed Lee Hoi-chang would win outnumbered those who believed Roh Moo-hyun would win by more than five times.

These results differed from support for a specific candidate. In Seoul, 56.7% predicted Lee Hoi-chang’s victory, and among people in their 40s, it was 57.3%. Even among those in their 20s, 56.3% predicted Lee Hoi-chang’s win.

This means that even in regions and generations not unfavorable to Roh Moo-hyun, the number of people predicting the victory of Lee Hoi-chang from the Grand National Party was overwhelmingly large.

Roh Moo-hyun rose as the protagonist of the national primary drama in spring 2002 and successfully built momentum. The process of winning the primary and becoming the presidential candidate was itself a drama. However, after the World Cup fever that heated up South Korea in June 2002, Chung Mong-joon suddenly rose.

Korea Gallup’s September poll results also showed that slightly more people predicted Chung Mong-joon’s victory than Roh Moo-hyun’s. Although the ‘multi-candidate hypothetical presidential matchup’ results differed from the election prediction survey, Roh Moo-hyun’s relative disadvantage remained unchanged.

Lee Hoi-chang and Chung Mong-joon showed support rates around 30%, while Roh Moo-hyun’s support rate was in the high teens. Roh Moo-hyun, who had low support as a presidential candidate and was overwhelmingly behind in winning probability, was clouded by the ‘dark clouds of defeat’ until three months before the election.

However, the final vote count in the December election was 48.9% for Roh Moo-hyun and 46.6% for Lee Hoi-chang. This was very different from the public’s predicted likelihood of winning shown in opinion polls. What was the reason? The 2002 presidential election is a subject of study in many respects.