The 'Tesla' of the Sea, the Era of Autonomous Ships is Coming [Reading Science]

Development of Unmanned Remote-Control Autonomous Ships for Eco-Friendly and Low-Cost Operation Accelerates
International Competition Intensifies, Expected to Appear Mainly After 2030
Korea Lags Behind by Over 5 Years in Technology... China Holds 96% of Patents

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Just like autonomous vehicles that operate without drivers, the era of autonomous ships that navigate the seas without captains or helmsmen is arriving.

According to the Ministry of Science and ICT on the 5th, recently, not only South Korea but also shipbuilding and shipping powerhouses such as Europe, Japan, and China are competitively developing autonomous ships. Since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) began establishing institutional measures for the operation of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) in May 2018, international investment and technological development have significantly increased.

In particular, Europe has been actively promoting autonomous ship development since completing technical, institutional, and economic feasibility studies through the MUNIN project in 2012. Finland successfully conducted a trial operation of the world's first fully autonomous passenger ship, Falco, carrying 80 passengers along the Baltic Sea coast in December 2018. Japan is also proactive. In October 2019, Japanese shipping company NYK successfully conducted a sea trial of a 20,000-ton car carrier equipped with an automatic collision avoidance system (SSR). China also conducted a test voyage in December of the same year with its first unmanned autonomous ship named 'Genduyun 0' on the Hong Kong-Macau route. In South Korea, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries officially launched support policies for autonomous ship development in June last year.

◇ Definition of Autonomous Ships

Various countries and institutions have announced different concepts, but they all include the common definition of ships that perceive their surroundings and control themselves to navigate. The International Maritime Organization defines autonomous navigation technology levels from 1 to 4. Level 1 refers to ships with automated processes and decision support technologies, meaning some functions are automated. Level 2 refers to ships remotely controlled while crew members are onboard; Level 3 refers to ships remotely controlled without crew onboard; Level 4 means fully autonomous ships capable of making decisions independently.

The introduction of autonomous ships is expected to primarily prevent maritime accidents. In South Korea, 3,156 maritime accidents occurred last year, most caused by human errors such as those by crew members. According to the U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center, 75-96% of maritime accidents are attributed to human factors. In South Korea, 'negligence' caused by operational personnel accounts for 82% of accidents, more than mechanical failures or bad weather. The shortage of shipping personnel can also be alleviated. Globally, the shipping industry is booming, causing severe shortages of crew and officers (marine engineers). According to the shipping manpower report by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), the shortage rate of marine officers was 2.1% in 2015 but is expected to soar to 18.3% by 2025.

Operating costs will also be significantly reduced. Generally, fuel and labor costs account for over 80% of commercial ship operating expenses. Autonomous navigation can operate ships without hiring crew and shorten travel distance and time. It is also expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a key issue in the shipping sector. The IMO strengthened environmental regulations in 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, prompting shipping companies worldwide to adopt liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered ships with lower emissions. However, LNG-powered ships alone are insufficient. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the shipbuilding and shipping industries must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels. Autonomous ships can minimize greenhouse gas emissions through optimal economic navigation.

Reference photo. Not related to the article.

◇ Market to Double by 2030

The autonomous ship-related market is rapidly growing. According to market research firm Markets and Markets, the global market size was $7.1 billion last year and is expected to more than double to $14.3 billion by 2030. Currently, the industry expects the autonomous ship market to grow as partial automation?such as automation of various ship control systems like information management systems, ballast water management systems, and propulsion control systems?advances without accompanying government regulations and legislation. Most ships are expected to remain at Level 1 by 2030, and experts predict that autonomous navigation systems will be installed mainly on newly built ships rather than upgrading existing vessels. However, after 2030, as technical and market issues and non-technical problems such as regulations, laws, and insurance are resolved, full-scale remote control and fully autonomous navigation stages may expand. Regionally, demand for autonomous ships is expected to rapidly increase, especially in Europe and Asia, where shipbuilding powerhouses South Korea, China, and Japan are concentrated, intensifying competition for market dominance.

Autonomous ship. Stock photo.

◇ Europe Leads Technology, China May Surpass South Korea

Currently, Europe and Japan lead autonomous ship technology development, with South Korea trailing by about five years, according to experts. Europe’s specialized solution companies such as Kongsberg in Norway, W?rtsil? in Finland, and ABB in Switzerland have developed technology enabling remote control in coastal areas and are conducting test operations, aiming to commercialize unmanned coastal ships as early as 2030. Although South Korea currently dominates China in advanced shipbuilding methods, it is noteworthy that China surpasses South Korea in autonomous ship-related patents. Globally, about 3,000 patents related to autonomous ships have been registered, with 96% registered in China. In South Korea, the three major shipbuilders account for 58% of patents related to ship automation technology, but only a very small portion pertains to autonomous ships. Samsung Heavy Industries began development in 2016 and is conducting demonstrations of various ship sizes aiming for commercialization of the main engine autonomous navigation system (SAS) by 2022. It succeeded in autonomous navigation of a 300-ton tugboat last year and plans to conduct autonomous navigation demonstrations of a large 9,200-ton ship later this month. Hyundai Heavy Industries developed the Integrated Smart Ship Solution (ISS) in 2017 and subsequently developed the Navigation Support System (HiNAS) and Berthing Support System (HiBAS). Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering also developed the smart ship solution DS4, capable of remote maintenance and optimal economic navigation support, which was installed on the latest container ships delivered to HMM.

◇ 'Double-Edged Sword'

The advent of the autonomous ship era presents both opportunities and challenges for South Korea’s shipbuilding industry, currently ranked number one globally. The competition in shipbuilding is shifting from 'price' to 'technology,' which is good news for South Korean shipbuilders who once struggled against Chinese companies’ price competitiveness. The introduction of eco-friendly and autonomous navigation concepts into the traditionally labor-intensive shipbuilding industry allows competition through technologies such as ICT, artificial intelligence (AI), the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and digital transformation. However, the problem lies in the lack of core technologies. Currently, South Korea’s shipbuilding industry has a low self-sufficiency rate for domestic materials and components. While general ships have 80-90% self-sufficiency, high-tech vessels like LNG carriers and offshore plants are only at 50-60%. For example, the position control system, a key component of high value-added offshore plants that South Korea prides itself on, is imported from Norway.

Ultimately, to prepare for the autonomous ship era and maintain competitiveness, South Korea’s shipbuilding industry must develop core equipment and software (SW) technologies independently. Currently, South Korea lacks global-level marine equipment companies and firms developing software responsible for sensors, communication, data analysis, and control functions for autonomous ships. Experts point out that the government should support core technology development, efforts for international standardization, creation of testbed sea areas, establishment of virtual simulation equipment, and provision of high-quality big data.