New COVID Variant Could Cause Death in 1 out of 3 Infected Patients

100% Immunity Cannot Be Expected from Vaccines... May Evolve into Less Fatal Strains

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[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Jinsoo Lee] There is a projection that if a new variant of COVID-19 emerges, one out of every three infected individuals could die.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which advises the UK government on COVID-19 response, stated in a report released on the 30th of last month (local time) that if a new variant appears, a much larger portion of the population could suffer from severe illness compared to now.

The coronaviruses Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which emerged in 2000 and 2012 respectively, have now subsided. However, the fatality rates for those infected with SARS and MERS were recorded at 10% and 30%, respectively.

SAGE pointed out that for COVID-19 to evolve into a virus as deadly as SARS or MERS, it would need to undergo further adaptation among humans. SAGE explained that new variants could emerge through changes in the virus’s internal genes.

The altered internal genes affect how the virus is detected by human cells, the speed of viral replication, and the cells’ antiviral responses, ultimately determining the outcome of the infection, according to SAGE.

The Beta variant, known to have relatively strong resistance to vaccines, could combine with the relatively highly infectious Delta or Alpha variants to form a new variant.

If COVID-19 does not significantly mutate from its original form, vaccines will still be very helpful in preventing severe illness. However, many experts believe there is no guarantee it will not mutate significantly.

SAGE expects that COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates will increase even with vaccination, as 100% immunity cannot be expected from vaccines.

According to SAGE, to prevent the emergence of a super variant, all measures must be employed, including booster shots (additional injections to enhance or prolong vaccine immunity), stockpiling COVID-19 related medicines, and blocking the introduction of new variants.

However, SAGE did not rule out the possibility that COVID-19 could mutate into a less deadly species.