'4th Wave' Officialized... Cases May Exceed 2,000 by End of This Month if Situation Worsens

Presentation of Mathematical Modeling Results
Daily Confirmed Cases Expected to Reach 2,140 by Month-End if Situation Worsens, Including Reproduction Number 1.71

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency [Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the quarantine authorities officially declared the entry into the fourth wave of COVID-19, it is predicted that if the current situation does not calm down, the daily new confirmed cases will reach 2,140 by the end of this month.

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated at the regular COVID-19 briefing on the afternoon of the 8th, "The Central Disease Control Headquarters considers the current situation as the entry stage of the fourth wave," and added, "Based on the number of patients at the end of July, if the situation worsens, it is expected to exceed 2,000 cases."

The main reason the quarantine authorities officially classified the current situation as the fourth wave is the rapid increase in the rate of confirmed cases. According to the authorities, the average daily number of confirmed cases over the past week (July 1?7) was 769, which is a 53% increase compared to the previous three weeks (June 10?30) average of 503. In particular, the metropolitan area recorded 636 cases, a 68% increase, and Seoul saw a sharp rise of 78% to 357 cases. In contrast, non-metropolitan areas only saw a 7% increase.

The rapid spread of the Delta variant (Indian variant) is also heightening the authorities' sense of crisis. The detection rate of the Delta variant has been steadily increasing recently. Over the past week (June 27?July 3), the detection rate of the Delta variant among domestic infection confirmed cases was 9.9%, about three times higher than the previous week (June 20?26) at 3.3%. The metropolitan area, which is considered to be under severe spread, also jumped from 4.5% to 12.7%.

The overall detection rate of the four major variants, including the Delta variant, also increased from 30.5% to 39.0%, with the metropolitan area rising from 28.5% to 39.3%.

On the 8th, citizens who visited the screening clinic in Mapo-gu, Seoul, are waiting in line for COVID-19 testing. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the same day, 1,275 new confirmed cases were reported, marking the highest number since the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

If the current spread becomes uncontrollable and worsens, the quarantine authorities estimate that the number of confirmed cases could increase to 2,140 by the end of this month.

According to the mathematical modeling (S-E-Q-I-R) jointly analyzed by the Central Disease Control Headquarters and private experts, the number of patients by the end of this month is expected to reach around 1,400 if the current level is maintained. However, if the situation worsens with the reproduction number reaching 1.71, the number of confirmed cases is predicted to reach 2,140. The reproduction number indicates how many additional people one confirmed case infects; if it exceeds 1, it means the spread is gradually increasing.

However, Commissioner Jung said, "If the spread is suppressed through active compliance with quarantine rules, the number of patients can shift to a decreasing trend," and added, "Also, if vaccination proceeds as planned and quarantine rules such as social distancing are actively followed, it is estimated that the number of cases will decrease to a much lower level by the end of September." According to this analysis, the number of confirmed cases by the end of September could decrease to between 260 and 415 through increased vaccination rates.

Commissioner Jung appealed, "I apologize to the public as a quarantine official for not being able to control the quarantine situation stably," and urged, "To quickly curb the current wave that started with a rapid increase in the metropolitan area including Seoul and Gyeonggi, and to reduce the overall social sacrifice, the united pause of our people is desperately needed once again."