[The Editors' Verdict] If the Artificial Intelligence Singularity Arrives

The artificial intelligence singularity refers to the moment when the intellectual capabilities of AI surpass those of humans. Once the singularity is surpassed, AI enables explosive vertical growth in technology development that far exceeds the progress humanity has achieved over tens of thousands of years. It is a technological advancement that completely transcends the speed of biological evolution.

There are varying opinions on when the singularity will be reached. Generally, estimates range from 2035 to 3000, but the variance is very large, and some even believe it is impossible. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, predicted that AI would surpass humans as early as 2025. This seems to be based on the expectation that Neuralink, a brain-computer interface (BCI) startup Musk has invested in, will achieve results around that time. However, this is considered somewhat premature.

Ray Kurzweil, the leading expert on singularity theory, predicted that the singularity would occur around 2045. He is also a futurist who has achieved over an 80% accuracy rate in predictions over the past 30 years. Kurzweil anticipated that at this time, technology would no longer be advanced by humans but by technology itself. This marks the beginning of the era of superintelligence.

In the era of superintelligence, AI will be capable of designing computers on its own. Furthermore, AI will be able to develop even more advanced AI than itself. As AI-developed AI creates superior systems with greater intellectual capabilities, this cycle will repeat, causing the rate of development to increase exponentially.

Will the era of superintelligence bring a utopia or a dystopia to humanity? With the arrival of superintelligent AI, humanity could be freed from arduous labor and immerse itself solely in entertainment and culture, creating a utopia. However, this is only possible if humanity designs AI in the desired direction and operates it safely. Jeremy Rifkin, an American economist and futurist, predicted the "end of work" 25 years ago?a technological paradise where difficult tasks are entrusted to robots, freeing humans from forced labor. Conversely, he also warned that a dystopia would arise if humanity fails to control AI.

Once AI capabilities surpass human abilities, companies and society will have no reason to employ humans, as employing AI is more efficient. This applies not only to blue-collar workers in production but also to high-salary white-collar workers. If AI composes poetry, music, and extends into the arts, even those in creative professions will face unemployment. While it is predicted that jobs involving empathy and providing psychological comfort to humans may survive, even these professions have uncertain longevity.

There are about 20 to 30 years left until the AI singularity arrives. This period is extremely important. Afterward, nations, companies, and individuals will likely be divided into those who possess AI technology and those who do not, and this situation will probably persist. The benefits brought by the singularity may not be distributed fairly to everyone. It will also be impossible for AI latecomer countries to catch up with or surpass AI advanced countries. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, led by AI and robotics, will proceed fiercely until the singularity is reached. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is literally a revolution. To avoid falling behind, every field will need to be revolutionized.

Im Juhwan, Honorary President of the Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences