Bloomberg "US Q2 GDP Growth Rate Could Reach 10%"

[Photo by UPI Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Bloomberg reported on the 21st that the United States' GDP growth rate for the second quarter of this year could rise to 10%.

According to Bloomberg's own analysis using a high-frequency indicator analysis model, the growth rate for the second quarter could reach 10%.

High-frequency indicators refer to new economic models created by combining various economic indicators beyond traditional ones to grasp economic conditions more quickly. Various institutions develop their own high-frequency indicator models to analyze and predict rapidly changing economic situations.

Bloomberg's high-frequency indicators include not only traditional statistical indicators such as new unemployment claims and mortgage application indices but also indicators like airline passengers, public transportation usage, restaurant reservations, and steel production. In addition to these indicators that reflect the real economy, the model comprehensively analyzes COVID-19 infection status and financial market indices.

Bloomberg explained in detail that the consumer confidence index is improving and spending in the service sector is rapidly increasing. It also diagnosed that corporate investment intentions are strengthening and the labor market is improving.

Regarding the employment sector, Bloomberg noted that although new unemployment claims unexpectedly increased last week, the 4-week moving average, which shows the trend, continued to decline. Furthermore, since unemployment benefits will be reduced in June, the number of job seekers is expected to increase, leading to a significant rise in nonfarm payroll employment in June. While May's nonfarm payroll jobs increased by only 599,000, less than expected, June is expected to see an increase of 800,000. Although jobs will increase, the unemployment rate in June is expected to remain at 5.8%, the same as in May, due to the rise in job seekers caused by the reduction in unemployment benefits.

Bloomberg also stated that consumer demand remains strong, and with increased use of public transportation and air travel, summer travel expenses are rising.