French Regional Elections, Far-Right Le Pen Underperforms... Is the Center-Right Rising Rapidly?

Exit Poll Shows Center-Right Republican Party in First Place
Attention on Next Year's Presidential Election 'Barometer'

Marine Le Pen
Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] In the regional elections held in France on the 20th (local time), the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, one of the leading candidates for next year's presidential election, is expected to perform poorly.

According to exit polls released at 8 p.m. by polling agencies Ipsos and Sopra Steria, the center-right Republican Party is predicted to take first place with 27.2% of the vote, ahead of Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), which recorded 19.3%.

Following them were the center-left Socialist Party (PS) with 17.6% and the Green Party (EELV) with 12.5%. The ruling party La R?publique En Marche (LREM), led by President Emmanuel Macron, came in fifth with 11.2%.

While the ruling party's low vote share was expected, the poor performance of the National Rally, which was anticipated to do well, has drawn attention to its potential impact on next year's presidential election.

The predicted 19% vote share for the National Rally is more than 7 percentage points lower than the 27.7% they achieved in the 2015 regional elections.

Especially since Le Pen has consistently held first place in major presidential candidate polls since last year, foreign media are calling this exit poll result a surprise.

On the other hand, if the Republicans win as the exit polls suggest, the center-right camp is expected to gain momentum ahead of the presidential election.

Xavier Bertrand, who ranks third in presidential candidate polls behind Le Pen and Macron and represents the center-right camp, commented, "This election showed that the center-right forces are the most effective barrier against the far-right camp."

Additionally, as center-left parties are also expected to secure respectable vote shares, the possibility of a unified left-wing candidate ahead of next year's presidential election is being considered.

However, some argue that with voter turnout at a record low of 32%, it is premature to draw political conclusions.

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by Reuters]

Meanwhile, a close aide to President Macron and a current LREM lawmaker said about the exit poll results, "Macron has been slapped in the face once again." This comment referred to the recent incident where President Macron was slapped by a citizen on the street during his regional tour, criticizing the election outcome.

In regions where no candidate secured a majority in the first round of voting, candidates who obtained more than 10% of the votes will compete in a runoff on the 27th.