[Professor Hwang Jae-ho's Diplomatic Odyssey] US-China Relations, More Interdependent Than During the Cold War Era

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] The focus of the international community is directed towards the United States and China. This is because the rivalry between the two powers goes beyond a mere struggle for hegemony; it is a fierce contest for leadership over how to reshape the future international order between the existing hegemon and the emerging power.

No region in the world is free from the influence of this struggle. The Korean Peninsula is no exception. South Korea maintains a strong security alliance with the United States while having close economic ties with China.

Depending on how the situation unfolds, there is a possibility that South Korea may be forced to choose between the two powers. The situation on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea's denuclearization, could change depending on how U.S.-China relations are reset.

Accordingly, Professor Hwang Jae-ho of the Department of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies held an email dialogue titled "The Path of Korean Diplomacy Amid U.S.-China Hegemonic Competition" with Joseph Nye, the world’s leading scholar of international politics and Harvard University’s Emeritus Professor, and Zha Qingguo, former Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University and China’s top diplomatic expert.

8. Joseph Nye, the World’s Leading Scholar of International Politics, and Zha Qingguo, China’s Top Diplomatic Expert

- Hwang Jae-ho (hereafter Hwang): Since World War II, the United States has established itself as the world’s strongest power globally for over 70 years. During this period, the U.S. built a dense network and solid infrastructure in the international community. Yet, recently, the U.S. seems to lack confidence in its actions.

Is the U.S. afraid of new challengers? Are current U.S.-China relations a strategic competition, or, as former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger suggested, are we at the dawn of a new Cold War?

▲ Joseph Nye (hereafter Nye): I do not view U.S.-China relations as a new Cold War. The U.S.-China relationship is far more interdependent than the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War.

Besides economic interdependence, there is ecological interdependence in areas such as climate change and pandemics, making unilateral problem-solving in the international community difficult. From this perspective, complete U.S.-China decoupling is practically impossible; it is more accurate to describe the relationship as cooperative competition.

▲ Zha Qingguo (hereafter Zha): China desires normalization of relations with the U.S. Both countries understand that cooperating on shared interests is mutually beneficial. Chinese leaders have consistently shown goodwill toward the U.S., but have not received positive responses. As a result, U.S.-China relations remain in a state of confusion.

- Hwang: Then, what about China, which has risen as a Big Two? I believe China still needs tremendous time and effort to create its own global values and model like the U.S.

China maintains a no-alliance policy, but is it that China cannot form alliances rather than choosing not to? What values and models must China create to be competitive?

▲ Zha: China has not sought to propose a Chinese-style development model for other countries’ development. China has built and implemented an independent development path based on national particularities, so it cannot be universally applied to all countries. However, the Chinese development model can serve as a good reference for other countries seeking development paths suited to their own conditions.

▲ Nye: China faces difficulties projecting its soft power in Asia and the international community due to conflicts with neighboring countries. Moreover, strict party control under the Leninist model is criticized for hindering civil society development. The rise of Chinese nationalism and the "Chinese Dream" are not good export models.

- Hwang: The Korean Peninsula policy is important in U.S.-China relations. Especially, the Biden administration’s North Korea policy is set on dialogue and diplomacy. However, North Korea’s demand for sanctions relief was apparently not accepted at last month’s South Korea-U.S. summit, and conflict with North Korea remains a constant. How should we approach our North Korea policy?

▲ Nye: The Kim Jong-un regime in North Korea wants to divide South Korea and the U.S. on the Korean Peninsula issue, but this contradicts South Korea’s foreign strategy. Therefore, South Korea should pursue policies to ease tensions with North Korea while being cautious about separation from the U.S.

▲ Zha: Since both North Korea and the U.S. are unlikely to change their current positions for the time being, South Korea has limited options. China’s position is very similar to South Korea’s. It will be difficult to make a choice biased toward either the desire for denuclearization or the hope for a peace regime. In this situation, the best option for South Korea is to wait patiently.

- Hwang: Following last month’s South Korea-U.S. summit, diplomatic competition among South Korea, the U.S., and China around the Korean Peninsula has begun in earnest. Notably, the joint statement of the summit carefully avoided language that would provoke China’s open and direct opposition, considering relations with China on issues like the Quad and the South China Sea.

However, South Korea’s strategic value between the U.S. and China will increase, but so will invisible pressure and dilemmas from both sides. Can we say that the Moon Jae-in administration has handled this wisely between the U.S. and China?

▶ Zha: Such policies may be possible to balance and utilize U.S. and China positions to an appropriate extent, but in the long term, they risk not gaining trust from either side and may raise suspicion.

The best diplomatic approach for South Korea regarding U.S.-China relations is to maintain neutrality while persuading both countries to adopt a more pragmatic approach on issues linked to South Korea’s national interests, such as North Korea’s nuclear issue.

▲ Nye: South Korea should consider China’s national interests but also recognize that China may try to limit South Korea’s independent actions. Therefore, the South Korean government should not think it can solve China-related issues by being pro-China or submissive. Such diplomatic responses should avoid increasing U.S. distrust of South Korea.

- Hwang: The Korean Peninsula may threaten China’s sovereignty but is not a core interest; it can be considered an important interest equivalent to a core interest. What do you think?

▲ Zha: China regards the Korean Peninsula as a very important partner in both security and economic fields and opposes North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, which poses a serious threat to China and the world. China believes peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula are very important to the interests of relevant countries. Therefore, China positively views dialogue and negotiations among regional stakeholders to achieve denuclearization.

▲ Nye: Historically, South Korea has had geopolitical issues among strong neighbors like China and Japan, but since World War II, it has resolved related issues through an alliance with the U.S., which is distant from territorial interests in Northeast Asia. Considering the ongoing China variable in geopolitical interests, South Korea needs to maintain its alliance with the U.S. effectively without completely excluding China.

- Hwang: South Korea-Japan relations remain unresolved. The U.S. emphasizes the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance and acts as a mediator to improve South Korea-Japan relations. Do you think improvement is possible? And what are the prerequisites for improving South Korea-Japan relations?

▲ Nye: For both South Korea and Japan, issues related to North Korea and China’s current and future policies are nationally very important and involve shared interests. Therefore, South Korea and Japan should look to the future and move toward an era of cooperation rather than amplifying conflicts centered on bilateral historical issues.

▲ Zha: One way for South Korea and Japan to restore relations is to reject the practice of bringing historical issues into diplomatic relations. Currently, bilateral relations are multilayered, and the benefits of stable and cooperative relations between the two countries are significant.

Therefore, both countries should clearly recognize that cooperative relations will benefit them more than intensified conflicts fueled by nationalist sentiments and historical issues.

- Hwang: Professor Nye evaluated 14 U.S. presidents since 1945 based on how well they combined national interest and morality in foreign policy in his book "Do Morals Matter?" It has been four months since the Biden administration began. How would you rate Biden’s diplomacy so far?

▲ Nye: After taking office, President Biden shifted policy from Trump’s direction by strengthening alliances and multilateralism. As a result, the U.S. has rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement and WHO, actively supported vaccine distribution through COVAX, and is pursuing policies to restore America’s soft power in the international community.

▲ Zha: If I were to score Biden’s diplomacy so far, I would give it 6 out of 10. Since taking office, Biden has done the right things domestically and internationally. However, even after several months, the U.S. government’s goals for China policy remain unclear. Like former President Donald Trump, Biden interprets U.S.-China relations as strategic competition, but strategic competition is a means, not an end.

- Hwang: Did the COVID-19 pandemic merely shake the international order temporarily, or is it fundamentally reshaping it? If the U.S. fails to provide sufficient trust, the world may move toward multipolarity, non-polarity, or U.S.-China bipolarity. What kind of era should we expect?

▲ Nye: The changes revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic are not a geopolitical balance reshuffle but rather an emphasis on existing trends in the international order.

Competition and conflict between the U.S. and China were already evident before 2020, and the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of both countries have not changed significantly. If the Biden administration fails to restore trust in the U.S. and overcome the current crisis, more serious changes than those caused by COVID-19 will occur.

▲ Zha: Assuming the international order means the way a set of rules, norms, and institutions are interpreted, it has undergone significant changes long before the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic only accelerated this process.

The Biden administration is making great efforts to regain U.S. power, alliances, and international leadership, but if it wastes resources on containing China rather than solving domestic problems, this trend will accelerate.

- Hwang: During the Reagan era, Secretary of State George Shultz compared foreign policy to gardening. Is Biden a gardener who manages international realities as they are, or a landscaper who (re)designs the garden’s structure through global governance and mechanism innovation?

Watching the recent South Korea-U.S. summit, it is still early to judge, but I felt the U.S. is attempting to define and expand South Korea’s role from a global strategic perspective, i.e., acting as a landscaper. What is the strategic significance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance in this era?

▲ Nye: As argued in "Do Morals Matter?", a great foreign policy leader must play both the role of a landscaper and a gardener with the art of patience. Sometimes, patience is more important in foreign policy.

Also, a great foreign policy leader needs a vision to design new governance and mechanism structures in the international community. I believe President Biden recognizes this well and is trying to combine these two roles.

▲ Zha: President Biden aspires to be a landscaper, gardener, and architect who builds global governance. However, his efforts face difficulties due to domestic and international constraints.

Whether Biden can bring leadership and dynamism to global governance depends on how he resolves domestic issues and manages relations with China and other countries.

- Hwang: South Korea’s national power and impressive COVID-19 response have significantly raised its international standing. There is a growing domestic call for South Korean diplomacy to go beyond the Korean Peninsula and contribute globally. What direction should South Korean diplomacy take?

▲ Nye: South Korea has achieved an economic miracle and democratic prosperity. It has developed beyond China’s rise in some respects. Now, South Korea has the capacity to play a greater role internationally. It needs to lead solutions on important ecological issues like climate change and pandemics, which will become more significant in international society and world politics.

▲ Zha: South Korea can play a bigger role in the future. Especially amid geopolitical power shifts, it is important for South Korea to maximize its diplomatic interests and actively participate in multilateral cooperation to address various regional and global challenges, thereby enhancing its influence.

Participation in multilateral cooperation will facilitate raising South Korea’s international status and promote its national interests in regional and global governance.

◆ Joseph Nye, Emeritus Professor at Harvard University, is a leading American international relations scholar. He served as Deputy Under Secretary of State in the Jimmy Carter administration and as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense in the Bill Clinton administration.

In 2014, Foreign Policy, a leading journal in diplomacy, named him the most influential figure in international relations academia and policy that year. Nye has authored "Understanding International Conflicts," "Soft Power," "Power and Interdependence," "Is the American Century Over?" and in 2020, "Do Morals Matter?"

◆ Zha Qingguo is a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University and Director of the Center for Sino-Foreign Humanities Exchange. He is regarded as China’s top diplomatic policy expert. After graduating from Beijing Foreign Studies University, he earned his master’s and doctoral degrees at Cornell University.

He has been a professor at the University of Sydney and a fellow at the Brookings Institution, and served as Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University until 2018. Since 2013, Zha has been a standing committee member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, one of China’s three major political bodies alongside the State Council and the National People’s Congress. His books include "The Rise of a Great Power," "Mutual Construction: China and the World in the Process of Rise," and "Theory and Practice of Public Diplomacy."

Compiled by Reporter Yoo In-ho

Translated by Shin Ui-chan, Researcher at the Global Strategy Cooperation Institute