[AKYUNG Poll] Lee Jun-seok Typhoon and Yoon Seok-yeol's Rise... People Power Party Support Rate on the 'Upward Track'

Party Leader Convention Effect Rises Three Consecutive Times
Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's External Political Moves Also Impact

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Park Jun-i] The dramatic party convention that elected Lee Jun-seok, the People Power Party leader in his 30s with no prior political office, has led to a continued rise in the party's approval ratings. Yoon Seok-yeol, the leading opposition presidential candidate and former Prosecutor General, is also preparing for full-scale political activities, raising expectations for a synergistic effect.

In this survey, the People Power Party's approval rating recorded 31.0%. Compared to the polls conducted on the 29th-30th of last month and the 15th-16th of last month, it rose by 2.3 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively, marking a third consecutive increase. It is difficult to interpret this trend without considering the 'Lee Jun-seok whirlwind.' Professor Lee Jun-han of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Incheon National University analyzed, "A convention effect, where approval ratings rise after a political event, has appeared," adding, "With Lee's election, the party seems to be renewing and changing, which appears to have increased expectations and interest."

The generational trends in public opinion are also noteworthy. Compared to the survey on the 29th-30th of last month, the People Power Party's approval ratings among those in their 30s (29.5% → 23.5%) and 40s (26.1% → 20.5%) declined. In contrast, those in their 50s (23.1% → 33.8%) and 60s (27.3% → 37.4%) saw significant increases. This shows that public opinion trends regarding Lee converge along generational political orientations. The conservative-leaning 50s and 60s strengthened their support for Lee, while the progressive-leaning 30s and 40s appear to have become more wary.

Yoon's role also seems significant in the rise of the People Power Party's approval ratings. Recently, Yoon has expanded his external activities, such as attending the opening ceremony of the Lee Hoe-young Memorial Hall. Yoon's political moves, with speculation about his possible entry into the People Power Party, are a factor supporting the party's rising approval ratings. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "While party approval ratings cannot rise indefinitely, I believe the current trend will continue until Yoon officially joins the party."

Yoon's approval ratings are also on the rise. In the next presidential candidate preference survey, Yoon received 33.3%, surpassing Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who received 28.3%, to take first place. In the survey conducted on the 29th-30th of last month, Yoon was in second place with a 0.2 percentage point difference behind Lee (within the margin of error).

This trend is observed in the head-to-head matchup between Yoon and Lee. Yoon recorded 48.4% in the two-person contest, significantly ahead of Lee's 41.1%. Although Yoon's lead was evident in the previous survey (a 3.6 percentage point difference), the gap has now widened to 7.2%, moving beyond the margin of error.

This appears to be the result of not only Yoon's full-scale political activities but also the issue of the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Agency (HCIA) deciding to investigate. Since Yoon could be perceived as being persecuted by the current administration, opposition supporters are more likely to rally around him. Public opinion on the HCIA's investigation into Yoon-related cases shows 47% opposition and 40.1% support.

▶How was the survey conducted?

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over, from the 12th to 13th of this month, with 1,017 respondents and an overall response rate of 10.9%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.