North Korea's Potential Military Provocations Amid ROK-US Summit and Joint Military Exercises

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] There is a prospect that North Korea may carry out military provocations this week in connection with the South Korea-U.S. summit or the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in August.

Experts predicted this at the discussion forum titled 'How to View North Korea's Changes,' held on the 18th by the National Unification Advisory Council at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul Art Hall.

Park Young-ja, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "The residents' survival anxiety has deepened due to COVID-19, flood damage, and a sharp decline in North Korea-China trade," adding, "The North Korean authorities have increasingly felt the need to deflect responsibility onto the U.S.'s continued sanctions against North Korea and South Korea's failure to fulfill promises, thereby escalating external tensions to suppress internal unrest."

She added, "While the possibility of an additional nuclear test that could create a catastrophic situation is relatively low, there is a possibility of testing new weapons during the development process of advanced strategic weapons that Kim Jong-un is focusing on."

It is expected that the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises will be a critical turning point.

Lee Ho-ryeong, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, predicted, "From the first half of this year to the August South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, or from after the August exercises to the first half of next year’s South Korean presidential election, North Korea may gradually increase the intensity of its crisis."

He anticipated that the level of provocation would not be nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but rather test launches focused on new weapons such as the North Korean version of the Iskander (KN-23 to 25) upgraded models or new cruise missiles.

Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, also said, "North Korea currently maintains a policy of 'strong against strong, reciprocal against reciprocal' toward the U.S. to sustain tension, but depending on the August South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises or additional U.S. sanctions pressure, it may gradually raise the level of military actions."

There is also a prospect that the South Korea-U.S. summit scheduled for the early morning of the 22nd Korea time could serve as a trigger for North Korean provocations.

Lee Jung-chul, a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, stated, "The North Korean military has technical demands for military experiments such as ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)," adding, "The timing of this South Korea-U.S. summit could be the target."