[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol 45.7% vs Lee Jae-myung 42.1%... "The Gap Has Narrowed"

Gap Between Both Sides Narrows from 7.3 Percentage Points to 3.5 Percentage Points

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol appears to be leading within the margin of error in a hypothetical one-on-one presidential election contest against Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. Compared to last month's poll, Yoon's approval rating has declined while Lee's has risen, narrowing the gap between the candidates.

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Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a poll from the 15th to the 16th targeting 1,019 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). The results showed that in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, former Prosecutor General Yoon leads Governor Lee by 3.5 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

When asked who they would support if Yoon and Lee faced off in the next presidential election, Yoon received 45.7% support while Lee received 42.1%. Compared to a previous poll conducted by Asia Economy and Win-G Korea Consulting on the 24th-25th of last month (1,008 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, 100% mobile phone virtual numbers via wireless ARS), Yoon's support dropped by 1.5%, while Lee's increased by 2.1%. In last month's poll, Yoon led Lee by 7.3 percentage points, which was outside the margin of error, but this time the gap narrowed to a close race within the margin of error.

Among supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea, 80.2% backed Lee, while 89.8% of People Power Party supporters backed Yoon. Regionally, Lee led Yoon in the Honam area, but Yoon led Lee in the Yeongnam region and the Seoul metropolitan area. By age group, Lee had higher support among those in their 30s and 40s, whereas Yoon had higher support among those in their 20s and those aged 50 and above.

▲ How the survey was conducted

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older from the 15th to the 16th, with an overall response rate of 8.0%, totaling 1,019 respondents. The survey method was 100% wireless ARS using mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted using weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.