[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol Maintains 1st Place as Next Presidential Candidate... 'Close Race Within Margin of Error with Lee Jae-myung'

Head-to-Head Matchup - Yoon Seok-yeol 45.7% vs Lee Jae-myung 42.1%
Gap Narrowed Compared to Previous Survey

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Gu Chae-eun] In the next presidential candidate poll, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol maintained first place, but the gap with Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung has narrowed.

When asked the hypothetical head-to-head question, "If Governor Lee and former Prosecutor General Yoon face off, whom would you support?" 45.7% of respondents said they would support former Prosecutor General Yoon. Those who supported Governor Lee accounted for 42.1%, with a gap of 3.5 percentage points, which was within the margin of error.

Compared to the poll conducted on the 24th-25th of last month (1,008 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, 100% mobile phone virtual numbers via wireless ARS), former Prosecutor General Yoon's support rate fell by 1.5%, but Governor Lee's support rate rose by 2.1%, narrowing the gap. In last month's poll, former Prosecutor General Yoon showed a clear lead beyond the margin of error. Meanwhile, in the previous poll, Governor Lee's support rate among women was 35%, but this time it rose to 41.6%. On the other hand, former Prosecutor General Yoon's support rate among female respondents dropped from 47.1% to 43.6%.

In the support survey asking "Who do you think is most suitable?" after listing major presidential candidates, former Prosecutor General Yoon received 30.5%, ahead of Governor Lee's 27.1%, but this was also within the margin of error. Compared to last month's poll, former Prosecutor General Yoon's support dropped by 3.3 percentage points, while Governor Lee's rose by 3.0 percentage points.

Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon ranked third with 10.1% support. Following him were independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (6.5%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (3.7%), former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (3.2%), Justice Party lawmaker Shim Sang-jung and People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (3.1%), former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (2.6%), and Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.5%). Other figures accounted for 1.6%, none for 5.3%, and unsure for 1.7%.

Meanwhile, among People Power Party supporters, 62.9% said they support former Prosecutor General Yoon. Support for lawmaker Hong and former lawmaker Yoo was 14.7% and 4.7%, respectively. Among Democratic Party supporters, 52.1% expressed support for Governor Lee. Following him were former leader Lee Nak-yeon at 22% and former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun at 5.5%. The vote concentration phenomenon was less pronounced than among People Power Party supporters.

▲How the survey was conducted

This survey was conducted on June 15-16 among voters aged 18 and over residing nationwide, with an overall response rate of 8.0%, totaling 1,019 respondents. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual numbers via wireless ARS. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the WinG Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.