[Yes and No] Korea-US Summit, 'What Is Meant to Be Said and What Is Heard'

On the morning of the 17th at the White House, President Biden unfolded his weekly work plan report. The phrase "Friday (21st) South Korean President's visit" caught his eye on the last page. He muttered to himself, "Guests are coming to the semiconductor country," then quickly closed the report. As he reached to pick up the next report, a person suddenly came to mind, and he fell into thought. "Xi Jinping..."

Two days later, as President Moon Jae-in left Cheong Wa Dae, two words lingered in his mind: vaccine and North Korea. He resolved to secure COVID-19 vaccines from the United States and also to lay the groundwork for a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue. The phrase "regime re-creation" also flashed across the window of the dedicated plane where his head rested.

The images of the two presidents before their summit are based on imagination but are likely close to the truth. The White House announced the confirmed meeting, calling it "an opportunity to strengthen the ironclad ROK-US alliance." For us, the ROK-US alliance mainly means "to counter the North Korean threat," but for the U.S. now, it means "to counter the Chinese threat." Sitting across from President Moon, President Biden would want to show off, saying, "Chairman Xi, are you watching?" However, if President Moon asks, "Now, let's talk about North Korea. When will you engage in dialogue with Kim Jong-un?" he would be off the mark.

In fact, the U.S.'s "new North Korea policy" is quite ambiguous. In summary, it is "neither Trump-style bargaining nor Obama-style strategic patience. It seeks a meticulous and practical diplomatic solution." The diplomatic solution seems to mean a carrot and stick approach (dialogue and sanctions). If North Korea shows willingness to change, corresponding incentives will be provided. The problem is that there is no strategy to lure North Korea to the negotiating table. North Korea's lack of response to U.S. contact attempts is likely for this reason. This could result in a prolonged state no different from Obama's strategic patience. President Moon, who wishes to build on the Singapore Declaration, would want to ask, "What is the alternative action plan?" but President Biden would likely avoid raising his voice on this issue. This is the limitation of this summit.

However, President Moon has already revealed the card of "what he wants to discuss in Washington." In a recent New York Times interview, he advised President Biden to "engage in dialogue with North Korea and cooperate with China." He also warned that "abandoning the Singapore agreement would be a mistake." If such conversations occur at the White House, President Biden might respond, "That issue will be discussed with South Korea's next president," or "I don't care as long as North Korea gives up its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)." The person who would most welcome the exposure of the perception gap between the two leaders is Chinese President Xi Jinping. Having confirmed that South Korea is the weakest link in the ROK-US-Japan trilateral cooperation, he will devise strategies to pull South Korea closer to his side. South Korea's ambiguous position between the U.S. and China could become even more uncertain than before.

This does not mean that we should avoid raising important agendas just because the U.S. does not want to. If we focus on areas such as vaccines, semiconductors, and climate change, we can achieve results. Even in this introductory summit, building mutual trust and laying the groundwork for future consultations is meaningful enough. President Moon, who approached a historic moment at Panmunjom, might fall into impatience to finalize outcomes like a declaration to end the war or a peace treaty within his term. However, yielding the fruits to the next president would be a strategic decision for national interest. From a long-term perspective, strengthening the ROK-US alliance and establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula are more important than regime re-creation, which needs no further explanation.

Shin Beom-su, Chief of Political Affairs