[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-ju] It is forecasted that South Korea will show a clear protective effect against COVID-19 even before November, the target time to achieve 'herd immunity,' as the transmission power of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is not very high.
On the 7th briefing, Kwon Jun-wook, the 2nd Deputy Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "South Korea's COVID-19 'effective reproduction number' is currently slightly below 1.0," adding, "If this number is low, even if the herd immunity level is low, the vaccine's effect can appear early and significantly."
The effective reproduction number indicates how many people one confirmed case infects. If this number is below 1, it means 'epidemic suppression,' and if it is 1 or above, it means 'epidemic spread.'
Deputy Head Kwon stated, "Achieving herd immunity by the targeted November is fully possible and will definitely be accomplished," and "In fact, a clear protective effect can appear in the community even before November."
He also mentioned continuous social distancing participation, high vaccination rates and speed, and active communication and transparency during the vaccination process as conditions for early herd immunity achievement.
Regarding the 'conditions for herd immunity,' it was explained that if one-third of the population forms immunity, the COVID-19 epidemic can be suppressed when the effective reproduction number is 1.5 or below.
Deputy Head Kwon said, "Without masks or social distancing, the COVID-19 reproduction number is about 2.2 to 3.3, and at the median value of 2.8, 63 to 64% herd immunity is needed to suppress the epidemic," adding, "If more than 70% of the population is vaccinated and 63 to 64% form antibodies, herd immunity is possible."
He added, "Currently, thanks to mask-wearing and social distancing efforts in the country, the reproduction number is suppressed to just above 1," and "Even if the number rises to 1.5, if one-third of the population forms immunity through vaccination, the epidemic can be suppressed."
Deputy Head Kwon also mentioned the possibility of regular vaccination. He said, "There is a high possibility that the COVID-19 virus will move across regions and countries and cause periodic outbreaks," and "Just as the whole world gets vaccinated annually for influenza, a similar response will be made for COVID-19."
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