[Global Focus] US-China Fleet Pursuit, Tense Atmosphere in Taiwan Strait... G2 on the Brink of Confrontation

Taiwan's Strategic Value Highlighted...Emerging as the World's Powder Keg
China Responds with Military Aircraft Despite US Warnings...Military Tensions Rise
US Counters China's Gray Zone Strategy Amid 'One China' Challenges

On the 11th (local time), the U.S. Pacific Fleet Command released a photo of the crew of the USS Mustin, a U.S. guided missile destroyer, observing the Chinese Liaoning. The USS Mustin reported that on the 4th, it tracked the Liaoning, which was heading from Okinawa to Taiwan, and confronted the Liaoning near the Philippine Sea.
[Image source: U.S. Navy Twitter]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] On the 11th (local time), the U.S. Pacific Fleet Command released photos via social media showing the crew of the guided-missile destroyer USS Mustin observing the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning in the Philippine Sea, a mid-route area between Okinawa and Taiwan, on the 4th.

It is highly unusual for a U.S. warship engaged in military operations to publicly release photos directly showing surveillance and pursuit activities of an adversary nation's vessel. It is presumed that the U.S. destroyer had been tracking the Liaoning since the previous day, right after the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force announced that the Liaoning had passed through the Miyako Strait south of Okinawa.

The released photos show crew members stretching their legs and leisurely watching the Chinese fleet. It appears to be a display of the U.S. monitoring and controlling all Chinese military activities?a form of psychological warfare. The photo release starkly illustrates the tension between the U.S. and China surrounding the Taiwan Strait.

◇ U.S.-China Standoff in the Taiwan Strait

Recent reports of military activities around the Taiwan Strait between the two countries have been frequent. The chase between the two great powers' fleets has continued since the 27th of last month, when the U.S. destroyer passed through the Taiwan Strait heading north and appeared near the Yangtze River estuary close to Shanghai, China's primary economic city, according to Chinese military reports.

According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP), the Liaoning passed through the Miyako Strait south of Okinawa on the 3rd, then proceeded to the Taiwan Strait to conduct military exercises. On the 10th, it reportedly moved further south to monitor the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group USS Theodore Roosevelt. China dispatched its aircraft carrier strike group while simultaneously tracking the U.S. destroyer's trajectory with military aircraft off Taiwan's coast. The U.S. promptly deployed the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the South China Sea, heightening tensions around the Taiwan Strait to unprecedented levels.

As military tensions around Taiwan escalate, the possibility of war is being discussed. Some analyses suggest Taiwan is becoming the "Balkans of Asia." Philip Davidson, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in March that "China is likely to attack Taiwan within six years." Recently, concerns have emerged that China's timetable for invading Taiwan may be accelerated.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken appeared on an NBC program on the 11th, warning publicly that "if the Chinese regime forcibly takes Taiwan, the U.S. will respond militarily," and that "any use of force by the Chinese regime against Taiwan would be a grave mistake."

Immediately after Blinken's remarks, China conducted a show of force by sending a large number of military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). According to SCMP, on the 12th, a formation of 25 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters and KJ-500 early warning control aircraft, violated the ADIZ. This is the largest incursion since the Taiwanese government began publicly reporting Chinese military aircraft incursions last year.

◇ Taiwan's Increasing Strategic Value

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Taiwan has emerged as a key focal point in the U.S.-China conflict due to its heightened strategic value. From the U.S. perspective, Taiwan is the frontline that can block China's expansion into the Pacific and is a critical supply chain that must be protected amid the global semiconductor shortage.

Conversely, China is unwilling to yield on the Taiwan issue, fearing that the "One China" principle will be broken and that the issue could spread to human rights concerns in Hong Kong and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. If the U.S. formally recognizes Taiwan as a separate country and declares an official alliance, U.S. military involvement could deepen, and Western countries' human rights criticisms of Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and others could intensify.

The U.S. State Department is also emphasizing diplomatic relations with Taiwan unprecedentedly. On the same day, Secretary Blinken reaffirmed support for the Taiwan Relations Act, which guarantees Taiwan's security and defense. Earlier, on the 9th, the State Department issued new guidelines encouraging high-level U.S. officials to engage with Taiwan, effectively recognizing Taiwan as a U.S. partner country.

Since establishing diplomatic relations with China in 1979, the U.S. has severed formal ties with Taiwan and does not officially recognize it as a sovereign state. If the U.S. were to recognize Taiwan as the Republic of China government symbolizing China, as before 1979, it would enable direct involvement in China's internal human rights issues in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet through Taiwan. Taiwan's constitution regards mainland China as an un-recovered territory where Taiwan's laws apply.

The Chinese government strongly opposes this. The Global Times quoted Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping, saying, "The cause of rising tensions is the collusion between Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party politicians and the U.S.," adding, "The DPP and the U.S. are challenging the One China principle, and China cannot but respond."

◇ China’s ‘Grey Zone Strategy’?

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

However, some analyses suggest that China will not proceed to a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Instead, China is employing a "Grey Zone" strategy. This strategy involves limited provocations below the threshold of full-scale war to wear down the adversary and secure national interests.

According to the U.S. political media outlet Politico, since August last year, China has been employing various grey zone tactics around the Taiwan Strait, including dispatching aircraft carrier strike groups, launching military aircraft, conducting live-fire drills, and encircling with civilian vessels.

Since last year, Chinese military aircraft have violated Taiwan's ADIZ over 100 times, interpreted as a tactic to exhaust Taiwan's military. Politico points out that from China's perspective, attacking the already fortified Taiwan Strait is difficult, and with the U.S. regularly deploying warships in freedom of navigation operations, full-scale war is complicated, leading China to intensify its grey zone strategy.

At the House Armed Services Committee hearing on the 16th of last month, concerns about China's grey zone strategy were repeatedly raised. James Sullivan, Cyber Director at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, stated, "China focuses on lowering the adversary's morale and expanding influence over domestic and international public opinion through psychological warfare, information warfare, and legal warfare?the so-called 'three warfares.' China's malicious activities will significantly escalate in the event of a potential armed conflict."