"'Nae-ronambul' is tiresome" A 20-something who shook Seoul, will they also shake next year's presidential election? [Han Seung-gon's Political Notebook]

Why Did 20s Support Oh Se-hoon?
Criticism of Unfairness Leads to 'Anger Voting'
From 'Swing Voters' to 'Casting Voters': Where Will 20s Vote in Next Year's Presidential Election?

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party is pleased as predictions on the 7th showed him leading over Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Seung-gon] As the April 7 by-election ended in a crushing defeat for the Democratic Party of Korea, attention is focused on the 20-something youth who cast their votes for Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

So far, people in their 20s have been called "swing voters." This refers to voters who change their preferred candidate and party in each election or remain undecided until the election day, resulting in uncertain voting behavior.

Some have even disparagingly referred to the 20s as the "20s gaeXXkki-ron," a derogatory term implying that they lack political direction, are easily swayed, and do not vote, thus contributing nothing to the country's development.

However, many experts analyze that the April 7 election saw a "judgment against unfairness" sentiment arise among 20-somethings, and that anger translated into actual votes. This is viewed as a kind of "angry voting." As a result, the voting behavior of people in their 20s is emerging as a critical focus in the upcoming presidential election.

In particular, since there is analysis that "except for the pro-Moon (친문 | the faction actively supporting President Moon Jae-in and the current government's policy direction), the 20s voted entirely for the People Power Party," securing the votes of 20-somethings is expected to be a key variable in next year's presidential election. The 20s have thus shifted from being "swing voters" to "casting voters" (decisive voters who determine the outcome).

Photo by Joint Exit Poll Results Screen Capture of the Three Major Broadcasters

The People Power Party reclaimed the Seoul mayoralty after 10 years. According to the Central Election Commission's counting results, People Power Party's Mayor Oh Se-hoon won 57.50% of the vote, overwhelmingly defeating Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun, who received 39.18%, by a margin of 18.32 percentage points.

Mayor Oh won in all 25 autonomous districts of Seoul. Especially in Gangnam-gu, Oh's vote share was 73.54%, three times that of Park's 24.32%. Seocho-gu followed with 71.02%, and Songpa-gu with 63.91%.

Notably, 55.3% of voters in their 20s cast their ballots for the conservative-leaning Mayor Oh. Among 20-something males, 7 out of 10 voted for Oh. For the People Power Party, which represents the conservative party, this is nothing short of a dramatic turnaround.

Many opinions link this anger in the 20s' voting sentiment to perceived unfairness during the Moon Jae-in administration. Young voters in their 20s, who had supported youth unemployment measures, turned their backs on the current government due to dissatisfaction with employment difficulties, real estate issues, the LH scandal that dashed hopes of homeownership, and disappointment over gender discrimination issues.

The issue of converting non-regular workers to regular positions at Incheon International Airport Corporation (the so-called Ingukgong incident) has once again prompted the younger generation to point out the problem of "fairness" in Korean society. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Young people in their 20s point out that Korean society is unfair and skewed, and that the ruling Democratic Party, which created such conditions, has not offered even a single apology.

Kim, a 20-something working in Seoul, said, "Young people are sensitive to unfairness, such as the regularization of irregular workers at Incheon International Airport and the 'double standards' scandal involving former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, which sparked great anger." He added, "The reason young people are sensitive to unfairness is that Korea is a structure where those born with 'dirt spoons' (low socioeconomic status) cannot rise. If that is the case, at least the competition should be fair to have any hope, but when that is completely shaken, anger is inevitable."

Another 20-something university student, Lee, said, "People can make mistakes and wrong judgments. Then they should apologize and try not to let the same thing happen again. But this government offers no apology." He criticized, "That makes them even more detestable, and we have no choice but to withhold our votes." He added, "I want to say that the arrogance and dogmatism of the Democratic Party are the reasons for this election defeat."

At a press conference titled "To the Mayor-Elect of Seoul, Urging Gender Equality Fiercely, Persistently, and Until the End," held in front of the Seoul City Hall Library on the 8th, members of the Joint Action Against the Seoul Mayor's Sexual Violence Incident are shouting related slogans. Photo by Yonhap News

Given this situation, opposition parties have begun analyzing the voting sentiment of 20-something youth. Although some disparaged them as "swing voters" or "20s gaeXXkki," it appears they intend to turn them into a solid voter base.

On the 10th, Kim Woong, a member of the People Power Party, wrote on his Facebook regarding the April 7 by-election, "This election was not about 20-somethings supporting the People Power Party, but about them demonstrating their own power," emphasizing, "If any party fails to present a future for the 20s, the current results will be repeated." He particularly stressed, "This election was above all a moment for 20-somethings to realize their own power."

He continued, "There has never been such a sharp concentration of votes from the 20s before," and noted, "Some focus on the clear difference between 20-something women and men, but that is not the core issue. Even 40% of 20-something women supported Oh Se-hoon."

He added, "Until February, the support rate among 20-something women was probably below 10%. But in about a month, 40% of 20-something women came to support the People Power Party. Although the male support rate is shockingly high, 40% support is by no means low. If you think of 40% of 20-something women supporting the Saenuri Party, you can realize how remarkable this change is."

Experts define the 20-somethings' public sentiment in the April 7 by-election as "angry voting." Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon analyzed, "To put it bluntly, 20-somethings who supported the People Power Party can be seen as having voted for everyone except the hardcore Democratic Party supporters (pro-Moon faction)."

Regarding the 20-somethings' support for Mayor Oh, he said, "It can be clearly seen as angry voting," and added, "The Democratic Party seems to be trying to take a different approach to overcome this, but the hearts of young people may have already drifted far away," pointing out, "This is a very difficult situation for the ruling party's presidential candidates."