[Correspondent Diary] 'Profitable Industries' Seen Through China's Lianghui

Population Changes in China... Promising Sectors: Education, Healthcare, Elder Care, Pets, and Single-Person Households
China's Carbon Neutrality Policy to Reduce Coal and Petrochemical Industry Share

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] The Chinese leadership set this year's economic growth target at "6% or above" through the Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021?2025), the Chinese leadership unveiled an economic blueprint focusing on revitalizing domestic demand, sustaining exports and manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, and promoting carbon neutrality.

Although the Chinese leadership expressed confidence in the Chinese economy, there are considerable internal concerns. Uncertainties beyond the direct control of the Chinese leadership, such as fears of a resurgence of COVID-19 and US-China conflicts, still exist.

Another issue is population aging. While the birth rate is sharply declining, the elderly population is rapidly increasing. The population of 1.4 billion is China's growth engine. Since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1999, the core driving force behind China's rapid growth has been abundant and inexpensive labor.

Although the issue of low birth rates and aging was not a core agenda item at this year's Two Sessions, the Chinese leadership recognizes that China will soon face risks such as a decline in the working population and a decrease in people's income due to aging. This is the biggest obstacle to the dual circulation strategy (domestic and international dual circulation) promoted by the Chinese leadership.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Liang Zhonghua, Chief Analyst at Huaitong Securities in China, attended a webinar titled "Key Keywords of China's Two Sessions" hosted by KOTRA China Regional Headquarters on the 12th, stating, "Premier Li Keqiang mentioned China's aging population during the Two Sessions," diagnosing that changes are occurring in China's population structure. He added, "The decline in the working population is directly related to production efficiency and is why the importance of IT and other scientific technologies is emerging."

Analyst Liang also said, "Changes in China's population structure are an unavoidable fact," and "there is a need to pay attention to China's education, healthcare, elderly care, and pet industries in the future."

He also expressed concern about China's gender imbalance. Liang said that the 'single-person household' economy in China should be one of the major industries to watch in the future. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, as of last year, the sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) in China was 105.3. The gender imbalance is even more severe among younger age groups. For ages 25?29, it is 106.7, and for ages 20?24, it reaches 114.6. The sex ratio for adolescents aged 15?19 is as high as 118.4. This could become a social problem in 5 to 10 years when those aged 15?19 reach marriageable age.

Analyst Liang also emphasized the importance of China's carbon neutrality policy.

He said, "Although carbon neutrality is a long-term task, the Chinese leadership has presented it as one of the eight major work tasks," and predicted that detailed policies related to the green economy will be introduced in the future. He added that dependence on coal and petrochemicals will decrease, and investments in new energy will proceed.