COVID-19 Induced Population Cliff?… France's January Birth Rate Down 13.5% Year-on-Year

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Due to the impact of COVID-19, birth rates in major countries, especially in developed nations, have sharply declined.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 4th (local time), the number of newborns in France this January decreased by 13.5% compared to the same month last year. Italy saw a 21.6% decrease in newborns in December last year compared to the same period, and Japan experienced a 9.3% decrease. From January to October last year, the decline rates in Italy and Japan surged to 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

Belgium, Hungary, Austria, and other countries showed similar trends.

WSJ analyzed, "As the COVID-19 situation has continued for over a year, initial data and survey results indicate that many countries in the US, Europe, and East Asia, where birth rates were already declining before COVID-19, have been significantly impacted."

The Brookings Institution, a US think tank, projected in December last year that the number of newborns in the US would decrease by about 300,000 this year.

Although China has not yet released its 2020 population data, WSJ reported that some local government reports indicate a double-digit decline rate in births.

WSJ further analyzed, "Due to the health crisis and economic difficulties caused by COVID-19, many people are postponing or giving up on childbirth."

A survey conducted by the Guttmacher Institute, a US nonprofit research organization specializing in reproductive issues, in April-May last year showed that one-third of women respondents wanted to delay pregnancy or have fewer children due to COVID-19.

Demographers noted that historically, birth rate declines caused by shocks such as wars, epidemics, or economic crises have sometimes been temporary, but there are also cases where they were not, warning that if the crisis prolongs, birth rates may not return to normal.

Thomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna, Austria, expressed concern, saying, "All evidence points to declining birth rates and fewer newborns in developed countries," adding, "The longer uncertainty persists, the more permanent the impact on birth rates will be."