[Lee Myung-ho's Future Preview] Post-Corona, Rethinking the City

With the start of COVID-19 vaccinations, there is hope that the pandemic will end within this year. Will the period after that be the post-COVID era? How much will COVID-19 change our consciousness and behavior? Opinions vary. Likely, views differ by country, region, generation, and occupation. It depends on the intensity of the impact on consciousness and behavior. However, one thing is clear: humanity has never simultaneously suffered from an infectious disease like this before. Due to globalization and advances in communication, the entire world is simultaneously receiving live broadcasts about COVID-19 every day. A common experience and universal awareness are being formed among all humanity.

Just as the digital native generation emerged having grown up with digital devices, a COVID generation is emerging, having grown up experiencing COVID-19 from an early age. Students who entered elementary school last year reportedly think of studying as something done alone at home, and school as a place to occasionally meet friends. This can be seen as the beginning of the new normal. The post-COVID era will be shaped alongside the growth of this generation. How will the cities we live in change in the post-COVID era?

The Attraction of Cities Creating Social Capital According to Density

The competitiveness of a city lies in its density, where many people gather in a small area. Cities have prospered due to frequent exchanges and interactions among people enabled by high density. When diverse people gather, many new ideas emerge, and ideas are quickly tested and spread. Thus, cities become innovative and more productive. Jeffrey West argued in his book that when a city’s size doubles, its GDP, wages, and innovation do not simply double but increase by 15 percent more, following the ‘15 percent rule.’ Systematic economies of scale operate so that when a city doubles in size, infrastructure like roads and gas stations only need to increase by 85 percent, saving 15 percent of the required facilities systematically. As city density increases, connectivity and mobility improve, and more innovative ‘social capital’ is created. This attraction of cities has drawn more people to urban areas for economic and social opportunities. Cities have evolved into complex systems that attract people due to infinite opportunities provided by jobs, culture, and social capital.

However, city density has the weakness of vulnerability to epidemics and disasters. Over centuries, cities have undergone urban planning introducing sanitation facilities, zoning (separating residential and industrial areas), transportation, and safety systems to overcome these vulnerabilities. Yet, the basic framework of sanitary cities formed during the Industrial Revolution is now challenged by COVID-19 as no longer valid. Perhaps humanity has exceeded the density that nature permits.

History shows that when diseases flourish, people disperse and then gather again repeatedly. This time, many large cities worldwide are seeing people move to nearby lower-density areas. Although the passive response of escape is similar, what is different now is that digital technology is available as an active coping tool. Using digital technologies like the internet and computers, people work remotely from home and maintain work and daily life through online shopping. They have experienced and are confident that digital technology can overcome constraints of time and space. Cities in the post-COVID era will be newly planned by digital technology.

New Concept Cities Pursued by the Digital Native Generation

Even before COVID-19, cities faced many problems. Traffic congestion, air and noise pollution, heat island effects, lack of green spaces and good housing, wealth polarization, and inequality reduce urban residents’ life satisfaction and harm health. COVID-19 dealt a blow to cities barely holding on. Crisis is an opportunity to build better and sustainable cities and societies. Cities are complex systems, and solving problems requires a systematic and holistic approach considering various factors and feedback loops.

The most essential approach should start with improving sustainability to respond to the climate crisis and addressing health and equity by improving transportation and housing. To change transportation systems dependent on fossil fuels of industrial civilization and cities seemingly designed for cars, urban planning that drastically reduces traffic volume is crucial. Fortunately, COVID-19 has led many cities to increase bicycle lanes and pedestrian roads. One direction is to enable homes, workplaces, consumption, and cultural life to be resolved at the local level. Various approaches are being tried, such as compact cities that maintain urban density while reducing mobility, superblocks that provide more activity spaces and greenery within short distances, 15-minute cities where daily life (work, school, entertainment, and other activities) occurs within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from home, and car-free cities.

One point to clarify here is that since density is a success factor for cities, many cities have pursued megacities, raising the question of whether small cities are regressing. Certainly, cities have been successful and innovative because of density, but the essence lies in the diverse interactions that density brings. In fact, transportation-centered urban development increased city size and downtown density but also increased silent commuting times over an hour by public transport or private cars, and interactions only among homogeneous coworkers. Long commutes negatively affect chance encounters and interactions with diverse people. Dispersed residential-centered cities can actually increase diverse interactions. Residents with various occupations mingle locally, developing diverse commercial districts and local cultures, and such areas will emerge as new attractive places.

Older generations remain captivated by the myth of real estate invincibility. However, digital native generations seek local individuality. Furthermore, post-COVID generations are expected to work, live, and interact digitally, creating new concept cities in dispersed regions.

Myungho Lee, Planning Committee Member, YeoSiJae Foundation