[AKYUNG Poll] Park Hyung-jun Holds Firm 1st Place... Lee Eon-ju Trails Kim Young-choon Within Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] In a hypothetical mayoral by-election matchup in Busan, Park Hyung-jun, the preliminary candidate from the People Power Party, significantly leads Kim Young-choon, the preliminary candidate from the Democratic Party, according to a recent poll. However, if Lee Eon-ju runs as the People Power Party candidate, Kim is shown to have a narrow lead within the margin of error. The voting intention reached 94%, with more than half of respondents indicating they would consider the ongoing issue of the Gadeokdo New Airport project when voting.

This poll was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting, surveying 1,018 eligible voters residing in Busan on the 20th and 21st of last month. When asked to view all preliminary candidates from both parties, the results were as follows: Park Hyung-jun (33.2%), Kim Young-choon (22.2%), Lee Eon-ju (10.1%), Byun Sung-wan (6.6%), Park Sung-hoon (4.7%), Park Min-sik (3.1%), and Park In-young (2.3%).

In the two-person hypothetical matchups, candidate Park Hyung-jun received 49.5%, overwhelmingly leading candidate Kim Young-choon, who received 34.0%, by a margin of 15.4 percentage points. This gap is similar to the one found in the same poll conducted by Asia Economy two months ago (December 12-13). Despite the ruling party's full efforts to promote the Gadeok New Airport project and concentrated attacks on Park regarding the National Intelligence Service surveillance issue during the Lee Myung-bak administration, public sentiment appears largely unchanged.

However, if Lee Eon-ju runs as the People Power Party candidate, the hypothetical matchup shows Kim leading with 42.2% over Lee's 38.2%, within the margin of error. Compared to the same poll two months ago (December 12-13), Kim's support rose by 4.8 percentage points, while Lee's dropped by 1.2 percentage points, resulting in a reversal.

Regarding political support for President Moon Jae-in, 45.0% responded that they support him politically, while 51.2% do not. Party support was as follows: People Power Party 33.2%, Democratic Party 30.6%, People Party 5.9%, Open Democratic Party 5.6%, and Justice Party 4.8%. Although the two major parties have similar support within the margin of error, Park Hyung-jun appears to demonstrate competitiveness beyond party lines.

Responses indicating "definitely will vote" accounted for 83.0%, and "will vote if possible" accounted for 11.0%, totaling a 94% voting intention. This is notable as it contrasts with expectations that voter turnout for a weekday by-election would be relatively low. Many analyses suggest that higher turnout favors progressive-oriented parties.

Regarding the most urgent policy issues in the Busan area, "job creation" was the highest at 28.3%, followed by "stabilization of the real estate market" (18.0%), "promotion of the Gadeokdo New Airport" (17.9%), and "response to infectious diseases such as COVID-19" (11.9%). The ruling party's "Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PK) metropolitan railway network" received 3.7%, and the People Power Party's "Korea-Japan Undersea Tunnel" pledge received only 1.8%.

Regarding whether voters would consider the Gadeokdo New Airport project issue, 52.4% said they would, while 42.9% said they would not.

This survey was conducted on residents of Busan Metropolitan City aged 18 and over on the 20th and 21st of last month, with an overall response rate of 11.8%, totaling 1,018 respondents. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number wireless ARS. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.