[Presidential Election Jinx①] Frequent Visitor of 'Presidential Election Fortune-telling House' Gyeonggi Governor, Strange 'Cheongwadae Compatibility'

Former Gyeonggi Governors Never Crossed the Blue House Threshold... Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung to Challenge 2022 Presidential Election Again

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteWith 1 year and 1 month remaining until the 2022 presidential election, the top three candidates in the “next presidential candidate” approval ratings are Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon. They each have backgrounds as a Gyeonggi Province governor, a prosecutor, and a prime minister, respectively. An interesting point is that since the introduction of direct elections in 1987, none of the past presidents have come from the ranks of Gyeonggi Province governors, prosecutors, or prime ministers. This series of three articles diagnoses the “presidential election jinx” surrounding the careers of Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Leader Lee Nak-yeon.

① The Frequent Visitor to the ‘Presidential Election Fortune Teller’: Gyeonggi Governor and the Strange ‘Blue House Compatibility’
② The Vast Ocean of Politics Even the ‘People’s Prosecutor’ Could Not Cross
③ ‘Masters of Administration’ Who Shrink Whenever They Stand on the Presidential Election Track

Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung is answering reporters' questions after announcing the second metropolitan area housing supply plan and metropolitan area transportation network improvement measures at the briefing room of the Seoul Government Complex in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on December 19, 2018. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

The reason Seoul was called the “heart of politics” in the 1980s was not only because it housed the Blue House and the National Assembly but also because it was the region with the largest number of voters. Winning the hearts of Seoul voters gave a candidate an advantageous position in the presidential election.

However, the equation “Seoul = No. 1 in number of voters” is a thing of the past. Now, Gyeonggi Province is the metropolitan local government with the largest population nationwide, exceeding 13 million people, making it the biggest vote bank for politicians. It is no coincidence that elected governors of Gyeonggi Province have emerged as strong presidential candidates.

Politicians who have served as governors of Gyeonggi Province have shown considerable competitiveness in presidential elections. ‘Politician Lee In-je,’ who was elected governor of Gyeonggi Province in the first nationwide simultaneous local elections in 1995, was spotlighted as a dark horse in the 1997 presidential election. Running as the candidate of the National Congress Party, he garnered nearly 5 million votes, shaking up the presidential race.

Politician Lee In-je led a dominant trend in the Democratic Party’s internal presidential candidate competition ahead of the 2002 presidential election, gaining the support of an absolute majority of Democratic Party lawmakers. Until he was struck by the surge of ‘Politician Roh Moo-hyun,’ who staged a dramatic comeback in the national primary, the prevailing analysis was that the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate would be his.

Politician Sohn Hak-kyu, who served twice as governor of Gyeonggi Province under the Grand National Party banner, was a figure who stirred up a storm in the 2007 presidential election. When he left the Grand National Party in 2007, the political world in Yeouido was on high alert over his political choice, judging that his decision had the power to overturn the presidential race in an instant.

Especially when he traveled nationwide through the ‘People’s Heart March,’ waves of support and encouragement poured in for him. To the people weary of ideological conflicts between progressives and conservatives, Politician Sohn Hak-kyu’s warm and humane image was refreshing, and he quickly rose as a leading presidential candidate.

However, after joining the United Democratic Party, he was defeated by ‘Politician Chung Dong-young’ in the presidential candidate competition, and his presidential bid was thwarted. The 2007 presidential election remains a regret for him, with some saying that the final result might have been different if Politician Sohn Hak-kyu had been chosen as the presidential candidate.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Another two-term governor of Gyeonggi Province, Politician Kim Moon-soo, also dreamed of the presidency. He gained recognition for his abilities during his tenure as governor and expanded his political stature, launching a challenge in the 2012 presidential election. At that time, the Saenuri Party’s presidential primary was conducted under the absolute dominance of ‘Politician Park Geun-hye.’

Even after experiencing defeat in the 2012 presidential primary, Politician Kim Moon-soo continued his political endeavors. The most recent Seoul mayoral election, held during the 7th nationwide simultaneous local elections in 2018, saw Politician Kim Moon-soo run as the Liberty Korea Party candidate for Seoul mayor.

Politicians Lee In-je, Sohn Hak-kyu, and Kim Moon-soo share the commonality of having served as elected governors of Gyeonggi Province and having aspired to the presidency. However, none of the governors from Gyeonggi Province have crossed the threshold of the Blue House.

As of February 2021, the leading figure in approval ratings among major presidential candidates is Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. Although he is ahead of his competitors, it is still too early to predict the results of the March 2022 presidential election. First, there remains the party primary against ruling party candidates such as Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, and even if he passes that, the general election awaits.

Governor Lee Jae-myung’s greatest strength lies in having proven his political capabilities through achievements and competence as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province. This distinguishes him from prominent politicians of major parties, including the Democratic Party, who have grown as presidential candidates based on regional, factional, or power group support. His ability to expand the Democratic Party’s support base is also an advantage he holds.

However, his weak party base is a challenge he must overcome. Even if he maintains popular support, it will be difficult to realize his grand ambitions if he fails to pass the party primary. Recently, he dismissed rumors of leaving the party and clearly stated his intention to run for president under the Democratic Party banner. As public support for him increased and movements inside and outside the party to shake him were detected, he chose a ‘direct confrontation’ approach.

How will the strange ‘Blue House compatibility’ of politicians from Gyeonggi Province affect the 2022 presidential election? Will Governor Lee Jae-myung break the jinx of his predecessors and cross the threshold of the Blue House? Governor Lee Jae-myung’s political fate is expected to be a key point in watching the 2022 presidential election landscape.