Tae Yong-ho: "Ambiguity Disappears with North Korea's 8th Workers' Party Congress... New Opportunity for Korea"

Opportunity for Professional Diplomats to Step Forward Within Multilateralism Framework
ROK-US Joint Exercises Also Serve as Negotiation Leverage to Pressure North Korea's Disarmament
North Korea, Awaiting US Position, May Escalate Provocations After March

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Tae Young-ho, a member of the People Power Party, predicted that the strategic ambiguity of North Korea would be broken with the 8th Workers' Party Congress of North Korea, opening new opportunities for South Korea. He also expressed expectations that concrete results could be achieved if negotiations with North Korea proceed multilaterally rather than bilaterally, as multilateralism has been emphasized since the launch of the Biden administration.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 27th, Tae said at the People Power Party Foreign Affairs and Security Special Committee's public online discussion titled "2021 Korea Foreign Affairs and Security: Challenges and Opportunities" held at the National Assembly, "North Korea had left ambiguity in areas such as weapons development and future talks with the U.S. and South Korea, but this time they clarified everything in a yes-or-no manner," pointing out, "This is a mistake made by Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party." He added, "While this may be perceived as pressure by the U.S. and South Korea, inside North Korea, people will memorize these details thoroughly to see what has been done and what has not," and diagnosed, "With North Korea's diplomatic ambiguity ignored, this has become an opportunity to pressure General Secretary Kim."

The newly inaugurated U.S. President Joe Biden's emphasis on multilateralism was also cited as a new opportunity. Tae said, "With the Biden administration emphasizing multilateralism, we can now create a new multilateral framework," and mentioned, "There is nothing to gain from bilateral talks with North Korea." He stressed, "Through multilateralism, pressure from the U.S. and China can bring North Korea's diplomatic veterans to the negotiation table," and "We need to move toward a multilateral negotiation framework so that North Korea's professional diplomats can be involved."

Additionally, he analyzed that the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises could also serve as a factor to pressure North Korea. Tae said, "Chairman Kim has revealed a five-year nuclear development plan, which leads to a new arms race, so let's move toward a 'halt-for-halt' approach, and if North Korea does not respond, we can reset the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises to the starting point and find justification there."

Shin Beom-chul, director of the Economic and Social Research Institute, who appeared as a presenter that day, also analyzed that North Korea is waiting for a statement from the U.S., which could potentially lead to provocations. Director Shin forecasted, "If the U.S. does not make a statement by February, North Korea may provoke in March or April." Conversely, if the U.S. shows willingness to engage in dialogue, North Korea may strengthen ties with China and develop a favorable negotiation phase.