[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North and South Korea Without Communication... Is Military Talks Possible?

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As the Ministry of National Defense announced plans to regularize inter-Korean military talks, attention is focusing on the communication lines between the two Koreas. The South Korean government intends to discuss military confidence-building measures, including the schedule of ROK-US joint military exercises, through these talks. However, since North Korea has refused to reconnect the military communication lines since June last year, discussions have been impossible.

Currently, there are three communication lines connected between the two Koreas. The West Sea District military communication line, established in September 2002, consists of telephone, fax, and three backup lines. North Korea unilaterally cut this line on February 11, 2016. The East Sea District military communication line, established in December 2003, was completely destroyed by a wildfire in the North Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). To exchange faxes via the West and East Sea District lines, fiber optic cables need to be restored. However, fiber optic cables are classified as banned items for North Korea, making restoration difficult.

The remaining communication line was established on August 13, 2005, to prevent accidental clashes in the West Sea. The two Koreas must communicate daily at 9 a.m. on channel 12 of the International Maritime VHF Common Network. When a South Korean naval patrol vessel calls out "Hallasan," the North Korean patrol vessel must respond with "Baekdusan." Until June last year, the communication rate between the two Koreas reached 95%.

The rate of ad hoc communication between the two Koreas is even lower. After the 8th Inter-Korean General-level Military Talks, former Minister of National Defense Song Young-moo agreed to conduct ad hoc communications daily at 4 p.m. However, until June last year, the communication rate was less than 14%. Currently, even this connection has been severed. At present, the direct telephone line between the North Korean military and the United Nations Command is the only military channel linking the two Koreas, but the possibility of communication remains low.

Inside and outside the military, there is concern that in a military confrontation situation where even regular communication is not possible, unfair and responsive communications will also be difficult. Unfair communication refers to warnings sent by South Korea on VHF channel 16 when North Korea conducts military actions near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea or violates the armistice agreement. South Korea communicates from the Navy's 2nd Fleet Command, while North Korea communicates via the Changam, Guwolpo, and Gwankaksan communication networks. If North Korea persists with military actions despite unfair communication, South Korea conducts responsive communication, expressing its intention to take military countermeasures.

With all military communication networks between the two Koreas severed, there are forecasts that military talks themselves will be difficult. Since the 10th General-level Military Talks on October 26, 2018, one month after the signing of the military agreement, no follow-up military talks have been held.

A government official said, "The operation of the military communication lines that North Korea is currently not connecting can be seen as the first step in gauging the willingness to restore relations."