[AK Survey] Ahn Cheol-soo Leads Park Young-sun by 10%p... Democratic Party Has Higher Party Support

Democratic Party 32.7%, People Power Party 27.2%, People Party 7.0%, Justice Party 5.8%, Open Democratic Party 5.2%

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, is virtually maintaining a solo lead in the Seoul mayoral by-election scheduled for April 7. Numerous recent opinion polls point in a similar direction. Among the leading candidates from both ruling and opposition parties, Park Young-sun, Minister of SMEs and Startups, former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won, and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon are all significantly trailing behind Ahn, recording similar support rates.

Minister Park is considered the most likely candidate from the pro-government camp but is trailing former Mayor Oh within the margin of error and is neck-and-neck with former lawmaker Na. While the Democratic Party shows somewhat higher party support ratings than the People Power Party, it falls behind in candidate popularity contests.

According to a poll conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting on behalf of Asia Economy from April 2 to 3, surveying 1,006 Seoul residents aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), in a hypothetical one-on-one match-up, Ahn received 47.4% support, while Minister Park received 37.0%, putting Ahn ahead by 10.4 percentage points.

Although within the margin of error, former Mayor Oh also received higher support at 43.9% compared to Minister Park’s 38.7%. In a hypothetical match-up between former lawmaker Na and Minister Park, the results were close at 39.8% and 40.1%, respectively. Ahn has drawn attention by declaring his candidacy on March 20, promoting himself as the unified candidate of the opposition camp. Minister Park is likely to run but has not officially announced her intentions. Former Mayor Oh and former lawmaker Na have yet to decide their positions.

Political support for President Moon Jae-in stands at 47.2%, while those who do not support him are higher at 49.4%. Party support ratings are as follows: Democratic Party 32.7%, People Power Party 27.2%, People’s Party 7.0%, Justice Party 5.8%, Open Democratic Party 5.2%, with 20.2% of respondents being undecided or non-affiliated. Compared to the same poll conducted on November 1-2 last year, the Democratic Party’s support dropped by 2.5 percentage points, while the People Power Party’s rose by 4.3 points. Despite this, the Democratic Party still holds an advantage over the People Power Party, though this differs from individual candidate support rates.

Among pro-government candidates deemed suitable for Seoul mayor, Minister Park leads with 18.5%, followed by Democratic Party lawmakers Park Joo-min (9.6%), Woo Sang-ho (8.5%), and Open Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Jin-ae (6.1%). Notably, 47.2% responded with “none/don’t know,” nearly half, and even among Democratic Party supporters, this figure reaches 20%.

In the conservative opposition camp, Ahn leads significantly with 28.5%, followed by former lawmaker Na Kyung-won (12.9%), former Mayor Oh Se-hoon (12.6%), Seocho District Mayor Cho Eun-hee (7.1%), and former Democratic Party lawmaker Geum Tae-seop (4.7%). The “none/don’t know” response was 27.7%, but only 4.2% among People Power Party supporters.

This suggests that there are far more undecided voters among Democratic Party supporters compared to those supporting the People Power Party.

Regarding preferred real estate policy directions, the most popular response was “regulatory easing to revitalize private reconstruction and redevelopment” at 31.2%, followed by “expanding public housing supply using riverside roads such as along the Han River” (17.7%), “reducing property and comprehensive real estate taxes” (17.4%), and “easing financial regulations related to housing loans” (16.8%).

The sample for this survey was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of late November 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The response rate was 6.7%, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.