"North Korea's Possible ICBM Provocation Next Year and Military Presence in Kaesong Industrial Complex"

Asan Institute for Policy Studies 2021 Outlook
"Stalemate in North Korea-US Talks... Provocations for Leadership"

North Korea held a military parade at midnight on October 10th to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party, according to the Workers' Party's official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun. Salvoes are being fired against the backdrop of the night view of Pyongyang.

Domestic think tanks have predicted that North Korea is highly likely to engage in tension-escalating actions next year, such as launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and stationing troops in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Since progress in North Korea-US talks is expected to be difficult for the time being despite the inauguration of the new US administration under Joe Biden, it is argued that North Korea will use provocative measures to secure the initiative in negotiations.

On the 29th, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies stated in its 'Asan International Security Outlook 2021' report that the Biden administration's North Korea policy will shift to a 'bottom-up' approach centered on working-level meetings, and forecasted that "the possibility of a summit between Biden and Kim Jong-un occurring early in Biden's term is very low."

It added, "North Korea is unlikely to expect not only the lifting but even the easing of sanctions," and "as a desperate measure to break the deadlock, which is expected to be more severe than during the Trump administration, North Korea will consider the provocative card of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch."

To secure the initiative in negotiations, North Korea may raise tensions through tests of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) or short-range missiles between January, when the Biden administration takes office, and March, when the South Korea-US joint military exercises begin, and depending on the situation, may even carry out a high-angle ICBM launch.

North Korea's Chosun Stamp Corporation issued commemorative stamps for the 75th anniversary military parade of the Workers' Party, reported the external propaganda media Naenara on the 21st. The commemorative stamps, issued on the 20th, consist of a total of 15 types with a total print run of 50,000 copies. The stamps include phrases such as "Intercontinental ballistic missile that raised the dignity and power of Chosun to the universe" and "Our power and technology, Juche-style cutting-edge strategic weapons designed and manufactured in our own way."

It is anticipated that North Korea will take even bolder actions against South Korea.

The report stated, "North Korea will be encouraged by the South Korean government's passive stance and lack of significant response to provocations that occurred in 2020, and will maintain the perception that it holds the initiative in inter-Korean relations."

It further noted, "North Korea is likely to conduct test launches and deploy short-range projectiles within range of the Korean Peninsula around the time of the South Korea-US joint military exercises, and may also station troops again in the Kaesong Industrial Complex area, thereby implementing the plans it declared in June 2020."

It added, "North Korea's provocations aimed at South Korea could continue throughout the year regardless of attempts at dialogue unless the South Korean government sends a clear message that it will not tolerate such actions."