[AKyeong Poll] People Power Party Leads in Kim Youngchun vs Park Hyungjun and Lee Eonju Matchups

Asia Economy Commissioned Survey on 'Busan Mayor Two-Candidate Virtual Matchup' Results
Park Hyung-jun 45.8% vs Kim Young-choon 30.3%
Lee Eon-ju 39.4% vs Kim Young-choon 37.4%

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] In the Busan mayoral by-election two-way race, People Power Party candidates Park Hyung-jun and Lee Eon-ju both lead Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-choon.

Ahead of the by-election scheduled for April next year, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 12th to 13th targeting 1,020 voters aged 18 and over residing in Busan Metropolitan City (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). Former National Assembly Secretary-General Park Hyung-jun received 45.8% in a head-to-head match against Democratic Party National Assembly Secretary-General Kim Young-choon, who received 30.3%, leading by a margin of 15.5 percentage points.

Former Secretary-General Park led Kim with balanced support from men (49%) and women (42.7%) and was ahead in all age groups except those in their 40s. Voters in their 40s supported Kim at 40.7% and Park at 34.7%. In the 30s age group, the support gap between Kim (35.4%) and Park (35.9%) was 0.5 percentage points, indicating a close race within the margin of error.

Among Democratic Party supporters, Kim received 68.7% support, while Park received 82% support among People Power Party supporters, showing a difference in voter consolidation. Among so-called non-partisan voters who responded that they have no preferred party or are unsure, Park led with 40.7% support compared to Kim's 12.9%.

In the two-way race between former People Power Party lawmaker Lee Eon-ju and Kim Young-choon, Lee slightly led with 39.4% to Kim's 37.4%, but the difference was within the margin of error.

By age group, Kim led in the 30s and 40s, while Lee led in the 60s and 70s and above. In their 30s, Kim received 46.2% support and Lee 29.7%; in their 40s, Kim had 42.6% and Lee 34.3%. Conversely, in their 60s, Lee led with 45% over Kim's 32%, and among those 70 and older, Lee extended the gap with 48.1% compared to Kim's 29.8%.

Among Democratic Party supporters, Kim received 72.7%, and among People Power Party supporters, Lee recorded 65.4%, showing relatively weaker consolidation among People Power Party supporters compared to the 'Kim Young-choon vs. Park Hyung-jun' race. Among non-partisan voters, Lee received 30.7% and Kim 21%.

This survey was conducted from the 12th to 13th targeting voters aged 18 and over residing in Busan Metropolitan City, with an overall response rate of 7.3%, totaling 1,020 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of November 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.