[AKyung Poll] Lee Nak-yeon Leads with High Support Among Women and 40s, Ahead of Yoo Seung-min and Hong Joon-pyo

Lee Nak-yeon 41.5% VS Yoo Seung-min 28.2%
Lee Nak-yeon 42.4% VS Hong Joon-pyo 30.2%
Close race among men and voters aged 18-30

Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 6th and delivering an opening remark. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Wondara] Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, was found to be far ahead of the major opposition presidential candidates, former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo, in a preference survey for presidential candidates. Lee showed particularly high approval ratings among women and those in their 40s, while Yoo and Hong showed relatively close support with Lee among men and younger voters aged 18 to 30.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 28th to 29th, surveying 1,000 voters aged 18 and older nationwide (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), when asked "If Lee and Yoo run in the next presidential election, whom would you support?" Lee (41.5%) was found to be ahead of Yoo (28.2%) by 13.3 percentage points. Additionally, Lee (42.4%) led Hong (30.2%) by 12.2 percentage points in a hypothetical contest.

When Lee faced Yoo, 39.4% of men and 43.5% of women preferred Lee. Yoo's support among men was 30.6%, and among women 25.8%, showing higher preference from male respondents compared to Lee. The largest gap between the two candidates was among voters in their 40s, with 51.1% favoring Lee and only 21.7% favoring Yoo. Conversely, among those aged 30 and under, the difference was marginal at 0.4 percentage points. Among 18-29 year-olds, 33.1% preferred Lee and 32.7% preferred Yoo, indicating a narrow lead for Lee within the margin of error.

In a contest between Lee and Hong, women also showed a stronger preference for Lee. Among male respondents, 40.6% supported Lee, while 44.2% of female respondents did so. The proportion supporting Hong was 34% among men, 7.6 percentage points higher than the 26.4% among women. The most pronounced difference between Lee and Hong was again among voters in their 40s, with 51.8% favoring Lee and only 22.8% favoring Hong. Among those in their 30s, 43.5% supported Lee and 38.9% supported Hong, a gap of 4.6 percentage points.

Notably, Lee demonstrated strong consolidation of his support base. In hypothetical matchups against both candidates, Lee received high support from Democratic Party supporters, garnering 82.4% support against Yoo and 83.1% against Hong. In contrast, Yoo received only 55.6% support from People Power Party supporters, and Hong received 58.9% support from the same group.

However, among undecided voters, Hong and Yoo were more favored than Lee. Among undecided respondents, 26.6% preferred Yoo, while only 17.1% preferred Lee, a 9.5 percentage point advantage for Yoo. In a Lee versus Hong matchup, 31.8% of undecided voters favored Hong, while only 18.9% favored Lee. The undecided group accounted for 20.8% in this survey.

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older from the 28th to 29th, with an overall response rate of 11.4%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.