[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The international investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the COVID-19 vaccination rate in developed countries will exceed 70% by next fall, and expects that more than half of the population in the United States and Canada will be vaccinated by April next year.
According to CNBC on the 30th of last month (local time), Goldman Sachs forecasted in its COVID-19 vaccine prediction report that major developed countries, including the United States and European Union (EU) member states, will achieve a vaccination rate of over 70% by next fall. Economists Dan Sturdivant and Sid Bhushan of Goldman Sachs, who authored the report, combined supply estimates from vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, and Johnson & Johnson with consumer survey data to forecast vaccine demand and estimate expected vaccination rates.
According to the report, COVID-19 vaccinations for high-risk groups in the United States began in mid-December this year, and by around April next year, approximately half of the populations in the United States and Canada are expected to be vaccinated. Goldman Sachs also stated that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is expected to approve vaccine use within this year, with the United Kingdom projected to vaccinate about half of its population by March, and the European Union (EU), Japan, and Australia by May. Goldman Sachs anticipates that from the second quarter of next year, when vaccination rates rise and COVID-19 damage sharply decreases, the global economic recovery will strengthen.
However, they added that if the COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, which use viral vectors, fail or if vaccination demand weakens, the vaccination rate could fall below expectations.
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