[Opinion] North Korea's Dilemma Facing the Next U.S. Administration

Lee Yong-jun, Former Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and Ambassador for North Korean Nuclear Issues

The Chinese government and North Korean authorities, who have almost always shared the same stance on security issues in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula, showed opposing positions regarding the recent U.S. presidential election. China hoped for the election of candidate Joe Biden, who is expected to take a more flexible stance in U.S.-China relations, while North Korea, yearning for the lifting of sanctions through a third U.S.-North Korea summit, eagerly anticipated the victory of President Donald Trump. Although the South Korean government might have seen Biden as a more favorable choice within the framework of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, it appears to have quietly hoped for President Trump's re-election for the same reasons as North Korea.

Although there have been some changes over time, there is a fundamental difference in foreign policy approaches between the Republican and Democratic parties in American political history. The Republican Party tends to place relatively greater emphasis on national interests and national security compared to the Democratic Party, which has traditionally prioritized political ideals such as democracy and human rights and focused more on realizing American ideals through international cooperation. Economically, the Republican Party before President Trump pursued free trade as the foundation of the international trade order, whereas the Democratic Party has traditionally paid more attention to protectionism to safeguard U.S. trade interests.

There is also a significant difference in how the two parties implement these policy orientations. Despite a seemingly tough stance on national security, the Republican Party has pursued pragmatic policies that compromise and cooperate with adversaries when necessary for national interests. In contrast, the Democratic Party, despite a seemingly flexible stance, has exhibited a dogmatic foreign policy that refuses to compromise on principles and ideals.

For this reason, even during the U.S.-Soviet Cold War era, clashes with the Soviet Union were more frequent under Democratic administrations, while relatively amicable relations were maintained through behind-the-scenes negotiations during Republican administrations. Most of the large-scale foreign wars the U.S. engaged in during the 20th century?including World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War?were initiated by Democratic administrations. The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), which brought the world to the brink of World War III, was also a product of the Democratic (Kennedy) administration. The foreign wars initiated by Republican administrations since the 1990s include the Gulf War, the Afghanistan War, and the Iraq War. The Vietnam War was started by the Democratic (Johnson) administration and ended during the Republican (Nixon) administration, and the Korean War was started by the Democratic (Truman) administration and concluded under the Republican (Eisenhower) administration. The two-decade-long policy of isolating China after its communist takeover was initiated by the Democratic (Truman) administration and lifted by the Republican (Nixon) administration.

Considering these historical examples, it was neither a coincidence nor an exception that President Trump, who had boasted of military measures against North Korea, staged the unprecedented surprise of holding two U.S.-North Korea summits. North Korea traditionally preferred Democratic administrations but shifted its preference to the Republican Trump administration after the 2018 U.S.-North Korea summits, expecting that President Trump would provide the optimal opportunity to lift sanctions without denuclearization. However, that favorable period seems to have ended.

For North Korea, which is at a critical economic crossroads due to international sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, lifting sanctions is an urgent task. However, the likelihood that the next U.S. administration will continue the top-down style of negotiations with North Korea that it expects appears slim. Upon the inauguration of the Biden administration, North Korea, like China, is expected to face the Democratic Party's trademark offensive on "democracy and human rights," increasing the burden of regime security. Even if President Trump wins the election lawsuit and succeeds in his re-election, there seems little reason for him to engage again in uncertain North Korea negotiations without the need for a political show to secure re-election. Therefore, regardless of how the political turmoil surrounding this U.S. election concludes, North Korea is expected to face even more difficult trials after the next U.S. administration takes office, deepening its concerns.