"This Winter's Biggest Challenge... No Meetings Except with Family Living Together"
[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] "In 1 to 2 weeks, the number of confirmed cases could reach as high as 700 to 1000 per day."
Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated at the regular briefing on the domestic status of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) on the 30th, "Based on the current reproduction number of 1.43, up to 1000 patients could occur in a single day."
She explained, "The reproduction number was 1.52 in the 47th week (November 15?21) and analyzed to be 1.43 last week (22?28). Although this figure fluctuates depending on the increase or decrease of patients, since one person continues to infect 1.5 others, unless the reproduction number is maintained below 1, the scale of the outbreak will continue to grow."
However, she expressed hope that the reproduction number could decrease somewhat due to the recent strengthening of social distancing measures. Accordingly, she mentioned the need to continuously monitor the changes in the scale of confirmed cases this week.
Jung predicted, "Since last week, the metropolitan area has been under level 2, and from tomorrow, other regions will be under level 1.5, reducing contact between people. If mask-wearing blocks infections, the reproduction number will drop further, and the number of infected people will decrease."
She emphasized, "There are three factors affecting the reproduction number. First is the infection rate. Wearing masks thoroughly blocks both infecting others and being infected oneself, so it is necessary to reduce the infection rate through personal behavioral rules such as mask-wearing and handwashing."
She added, "The second factor affecting transmissibility is contact. Strengthening distancing reduces contact between people, thereby reducing opportunities for transmission, so contact between people must be minimized."
Jung continued, "The third factor is the extent to which confirmed cases are exposed. Early testing to shorten the infectious period is essential to maintain the reproduction number below 1." She explained that these three efforts?personal hygiene like mask-wearing and handwashing, social distancing to reduce contact, and early diagnostic testing to reduce exposure?must be combined.
She expressed concern, saying, "Although we have faced many crises over the past 11 months since January in responding to COVID-19, this winter is the biggest challenge. The cold and dry winter conditions worsen the environment, and the number of asymptomatic and mild infections lurking in the community is increasing, making the risk of transmission higher than ever."
Jung stated, "Many citizens are exhausted by the COVID-19 situation, and healthcare workers and local government officials, including epidemiological investigators, are also burned out in this difficult situation. If we fail to overcome the current crisis, all the efforts and sacrifices made by the public, healthcare workers, and the government over the past 11 months could be in vain."
She added, "Please refrain from meeting anyone other than family members you live with at the end of this year. Under the principle of no more face-to-face gatherings, we ask that all year-end and New Year’s appointments, Christmas and other religious events, and New Year’s parties be held non-face-to-face."
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