Deutsche Bank "Global Economy to Recover to Pre-Crisis Level by Q2 Next Year... Vaccine Hesitancy as a Major Obstacle"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] There is a forecast that the global economy could recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by the second quarter of next year. This outlook is based on the expectation that daily life can quickly return to normal, supported by successive vaccine development announcements.

According to CNBC on the 26th (local time), Deutsche Bank has revised upward its GDP forecasts for major countries next year. In its report, Deutsche Bank stated, based on vaccine development news, that "the possibility of a rapid return to normal life has opened compared to a month ago," and predicted that "global GDP could return to pre-COVID-19 levels around the second quarter of next year."

Deutsche Bank expects the global economy to contract by -3.7% this year. However, it anticipates a rapid improvement next year. The growth forecast for the U.S. next year is 4%, Europe is expected to grow by 5.6%, and China’s economy is projected to grow rapidly at 9.5%.

Although there is a forecast for global economic recovery next year, there are still risk factors.

Deutsche Bank first pointed out vaccine hesitancy. If people avoid vaccination due to reluctance toward vaccines, the suppression of COVID-19 spread could be delayed.

Concerns were also raised about the side effects of economic stimulus measures. Asset price bubbles and excessive debt could also threaten the economy.