[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Yoon-joo] The global economy is expected to recover by about the low 5% range next year, but the outlook varies by region, with emerging countries such as China and India expected to lead growth.
The Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute held the '2021 Global Economic Outlook Webinar' online on the 26th with seven experts in fields such as the global economy, exchange rates, and trade environment.
Ahn Sung-bae, Director of the International Macroeconomic and Financial Office at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, said, "In 2021, China and India are expected to see a full-scale economic recovery with high growth rates above 8%, but Russia and Brazil will only achieve growth in the 3% range," adding, "Advanced countries such as the United States, Japan, and Europe will show relatively low growth rates in the 2% range as employment and consumption recover slowly."
Min-geun Bae, Research Fellow at LG Economic Research Institute, who gave the foreign exchange market outlook, said, "With the inauguration of the new U.S. administration next year, uncertainties are expected to ease and expectations for large-scale economic stimulus will lead to a gradual weakening of the dollar," advising, "It is a time when Korean companies need to manage foreign exchange risk."
Je Hyun-jung, Director of the Trade Support Center at the Korea International Trade Association, said, "As countries are expected to continue protectionist policies to protect their domestic industries, discussions between countries on digital trade and the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism will be key issues," adding, "With the World Trade Organization (WTO) welcoming a new leader, various reform discussions are expected to unfold, making next year a test for the sustainability of multilateralism."
Shin Yoon-sung, Director at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, explained, "Due to COVID-19, global value chains aiming to maximize added value are placing greater importance on supply chain stability," adding, "Therefore, supply chains concentrated in China are expected to diversify, with reshoring and nearshoring occurring simultaneously, while ASEAN-centered production networks are likely to benefit from nearshoring."
Choi Yong-min, President of the Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, emphasized, "Due to the continued COVID-19 pandemic, the inauguration of the Biden administration, and ongoing U.S.-China conflicts, economic recovery will vary significantly by market," stressing, "Differentiating products and services through digital innovation platforms in response to market changes is key."
The seminar video can be viewed again on the Korea International Trade Association's YouTube channel.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
