[Opinion] 2021, The Real 21st Century Begins

Professor Seoyonggu, Department of Business Administration, Sookmyung Women's University

The end of 2020 has begun to come into view. People around the globe continue to live a suffocating life like a science fiction movie, wearing masks everywhere. However, even in such a war-like situation, curiosity about the post-pandemic future grows. The famous British writer George Orwell said, "Who controls the past controls the future." To interpret 2020, one must look into history books. After wars, the world is always divided into stocks that plummet and stocks that soar, and a new order is established.

For those engaged in traditional analog businesses and visitor-centered self-employment, each day feels like 'ilgak-yeo-samchu (一日如三秋, a day feels like three autumns).' Conversely, for those working in new industries such as system semiconductors, bio, electric vehicles, and contactless (untact) businesses, this year has been the busiest in the company’s history amid the greatest boom.

Let us assume that in 2040, twenty years later, people interpret 2020. Future generations will likely view this year as a 'strategic inflection point' marking the true beginning of the 21st century with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A strategic inflection point is a moment after an event when everything changes completely, making it impossible to return to the past. Looking back over the past 30 years, the 1998 so-called 'International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic crisis' or national default is an example. So, what will be completely different before and after 2020 and 2021?

First, the contactless society will officially begin. Various terms such as remote, ontact (a form of untact with online communication added), and untact are used, but they all tell the same story. In short, a contactless economy is one where the links of life?work, leisure, shopping?function well without direct face-to-face interaction. Therefore, companies that have contactless business divisions and can implement subscription economies will be the winners. Next year, Amazon is expected to enter Korea in partnership with SK. The Korean retail market will likely be led by the big three: Coupang, Naver, and SK·Amazon.

Second, a generational shift in the leading forces of the economy and society is expected. The influence of the baby boomers born between 1950 and 1964, who led Korea’s industrialization and informatization before 2020, will weaken. The millennial generation born after 1980 has grown into the main consumers, and their influence will increase further as they are hyper-connected through social network services (SNS) and contactless channels. Globally, millennials are distinguished not only as digital natives but also by their high awareness and preference for Korea, and their pursuit of social values such as environmental friendliness and fairness, differentiating them from baby boomers. The MZ generation (a combination of millennials and Generation Z), born after 1995, will see live commerce, which they enthusiastically embrace, grow into a major consumer channel.

Third, Korea’s status as an advanced country is expected to strengthen. In the war against the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 2020, China and Korea are classified as victors. According to the national brand value rankings evaluated by Brand Finance in the UK, Korea entered the top 10 for the first time in 2017 and rose to 9th place in 2019 among 100 evaluated countries. Samsung Electronics, Korea’s representative company, has maintained its position as the 5th-ranked corporate brand worldwide for five consecutive years. Brand value reflects the future. Korea’s rise in national fortune, along with its image as a digital powerhouse, is becoming a trend. Korea’s shopping festival, 'Korea Sale Festa,' held every November, may ride this rising national brand trend to grow into one of the world’s top three shopping festivals, alongside China’s Singles’ Day and the United States’ Black Friday. As of 2020, difficult days continue. It is a time when both 'Think Big,' hoping for the world and future markets, and 'Think Small,' watching risks and acting swiftly, are simultaneously needed.