[AKY Poll] Lee Jae-myung Flips 'Eodaenak'... Party Primary Is Key

Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Suitability Poll on 15-16th: Lee Jae-myung 25.1%, Lee Nak-yeon 22.7%
Lee Nak-yeon Leads by 9.2%p Among Democratic Party Supporters

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Wondara] In a suitability survey for the next presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung was found to be slightly ahead of Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon. This marks a noticeably different atmosphere compared to the previous party convention, where the phrase 'Eodaenak (Anyway, the leader is Lee Nak-yeon)' was prevalent.

On the 17th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 15th to the 16th targeting 1,000 voters aged 18 and over nationwide (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). The results showed Governor Lee’s approval rating at 25.1%, while Leader Lee Nak-yeon stood at 22.7%, with Governor Lee leading by a margin of 2.4 percentage points within the margin of error. Following them were Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (5.9%), Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (3.6%), former Presidential Secretary Im Jong-seok (1.7%), and Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Kwang-jae (1.1%).

Supporters of 'pro-government' parties such as the Justice Party and the Open Democratic Party also preferred Governor Lee over Leader Lee. Among Justice Party supporters, 44.7% chose Governor Lee as the suitable presidential candidate, and 45.8% of Open Democratic Party supporters did the same. Conversely, only 16% of Justice Party supporters and 30.1% of Open Democratic Party supporters backed Leader Lee.

However, considering that the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate must be selected through an internal primary, Leader Lee appeared to have a higher chance than Governor Lee. Among Democratic Party supporters, 44.6% supported Leader Lee, while 35.4% supported Governor Lee, widening the gap between the two candidates to 9.2 percentage points.

The distribution of regions and age groups that the two candidates need to target also differed. The survey results indicated that Governor Lee’s strengths lie in 'non-Honam' regions and among 'younger age groups.' In contrast, Leader Lee’s support was higher in 'Seoul, Chungcheong, Honam' regions and among 'middle-aged groups,' showing a clear contrast.

Governor Lee led Leader Lee in Incheon-Gyeonggi, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, and Gangwon-Jeju regions. The strong preference in the Yeongnam region was notable. By age, Governor Lee was ahead among those aged 18-29, 40s, and 50s.

On the other hand, Leader Lee led Governor Lee in Seoul, Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong, and Gwangju-Jeolla regions. By age, Leader Lee was ahead among those in their 30s, 60s, and 70s and older.

Meanwhile, one in three respondents said they either had no preferred Democratic Party candidate or did not know. Among those who answered the presidential candidate suitability question, 8.1% chose other figures, and 27.1% responded with none or did not know. Regarding party support, those who answered none or did not know showed support in the order of Governor Lee (10.1%), Leader Lee (10.1%), Prime Minister Chung (4.4%), and Minister Choo (1.8%).

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and over from the 15th to the 16th, with an overall response rate of 24.1%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.