"Beyond Mediators, Now Must Become Parties... Senior Officials Should Watch Their Words"
[Asia Economy reporters Lee Ji-eun and Lim Chun-han] Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General and a key figure in President-elect Joe Biden's network, predicted that in the "Biden era," "a declaration of the end of the war without linkage to denuclearization will face opposition from the United States." He also urged restraint from high-ranking government officials in making remarks that undermine the spirit of the South Korea-US alliance. Regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, he forecasted that the Biden administration would also be lukewarm.
On the 12th, Ban attended a seminar of the National Assembly Global Diplomacy and Security Forum and said, "We must move beyond being mediators and become direct parties involved."
He stated, "Even in previous administrations, the term 'mediator' was not used," adding, "We must prepare thoroughly with the attitude of being directly involved parties."
Ban said, "A declaration of the end of the war or suspension of South Korea-US joint military exercises without linkage to denuclearization is likely to face opposition from the United States," adding, "There is also a possibility that a negotiation strategy will be implemented through an intermediate step of partial nuclear disarmament and sanctions relief." He also cautioned against falling for North Korea's 'salami tactics' in such cases.
He mentioned the possibility of provocations from North Korea. He said, "Based on experience, North Korea has carried out provocations taking advantage of power vacuums during changes in the US administration," and added, "Pressure and persuasion must be applied to prevent North Korea from engaging in strategic provocations."
He also pointed out problematic remarks by senior officials of the Moon administration. He criticized, "High-ranking government officials should refrain from remarks that undermine the spirit of the South Korea-US alliance," and said, "In past administrations, if senior South Korea-US officials made such remarks, immediate disciplinary action followed. Since no one from the president to ministers speaks out against this, such (problematic) remarks emerge."
Emphasizing bipartisan cooperation in politics, he urged the ruling and opposition parties to unite for security and advised setting South Korea-US relations from a perspective of national unity, excluding political impatience.
Regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, he said, "Since the US prioritizes its own defense operational system perspective, there could be considerable conflict," adding, "During the Trump administration, it was said that wartime operational control could be transferred when conditions were met, and in my view, Biden's stance will not be much different."
He said, "From the US perspective, there is anxiety and frustration about why the position on wartime operational control changes every five years with each government change," adding, "It is highly likely that North Korea's denuclearization will also require coordination and agreement between South Korea and the US."
Ban predicted that the value of the South Korea-US alliance would expand. He said, "I have high expectations because the Biden administration is well-versed in the geopolitical situation of the Korean Peninsula and respects the value of the South Korea-US alliance," adding, "From our perspective, the weight and value of the alliance will increase, and it will be an opportunity to further expand the scope of friendly cooperation."
He emphasized, "The Biden I have sensed is a flexible negotiator but also an excellent coordinator," adding, "He values procedures and processes and will consult with relevant ministries and countries in a bottom-up manner, unlike Trump’s top-down approach."
Park Jin, a member of the People Power Party and another figure considered part of Biden's network, said, "Going forward, the South Korea-US alliance should be restored as a 'value-sharing blood alliance' that is predictable rather than unpredictable and not a transactional alliance," adding, "Restoring lost trust between South Korea and the US is the most important task."
He said, "With the launch of the Biden administration, the South Korea-US alliance must be reborn as a global alliance sharing core values of democracy, market economy, rule of law, and human rights," adding, "The Moon administration must build a consensus on the vision of the blood alliance between South Korea and the US and a shared understanding of common threats with the newly launched Biden administration for South Korea-US cooperation."
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