2024 Lunar Exploration Plan Expected to Be Scrapped
Biden NASA Budget Also Likely to Be Cut...More Focus on Environment
US Bipartisan Security Sector Space Force Expected to Remain Intact
[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] With the confirmation of Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, NASA and space companies are trembling at the impending aftermath. NASA and related companies had enjoyed growth thanks to the Trump administration's full support for space development, but with the change of administration, it has become difficult to expect such support. As Biden is expected to focus more on investments in basic science and environmental monitoring to prevent air pollution rather than lunar exploration, significant changes to the existing U.S. space policy are inevitable. In particular, the Artemis project, a manned lunar exploration plan pushed forward with re-election in mind since last year, is likely to be delayed, causing even greater anxiety among space companies.
According to U.S. space media Space.com on the 8th (local time), with Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, NASA and American space companies are reportedly concerned about the possibility of delays in the Artemis lunar exploration project. President Trump emphasized the Artemis project as part of his campaign promises, stating he would send the first female astronaut to the lunar surface by 2024, but Biden has not made any specific statements regarding space policy.
Biden's space-related pledges mostly include extending the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) until 2030, strengthening environmental monitoring through Earth observation satellites, and investing $300 billion in basic science research and development over the next four years. The political media outlet Politico reported that while there is no opposition within the Democratic Party to the Artemis project itself, there is also no emphasis on accelerating the schedule to 2024 as Trump did. Since Biden has prioritized controlling the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), the space sector is not considered an urgent matter at the moment.
The immediate focus is on the related budget. It is widely expected that NASA's budget will decrease compared to the Trump administration. According to Axios, NASA's Artemis project was first announced in 2018 as a mid-to-long-term project planned over ten years until 2028. However, President Trump, seeking re-election, emphasized success within his term and moved the deadline up to 2024. To meet this shortened timeline, $28 billion was allocated to the Artemis project over four years.
As a result, NASA's budget has continuously increased since the Trump administration took office in 2017. In the final budget of the Obama administration for fiscal year 2017 (October 1, 2017 ? September 30, 2018), NASA's budget was $19 billion, but in the Trump administration's final budget for fiscal year 2021, it rose by 34% to $25.4 billion compared to 2017. Notably, NASA's budget for next year is expected to increase by about 13% amid the COVID-19 situation, drawing domestic and international criticism.
The fortunes of space development companies are expected to diverge. With the lunar exploration plan likely to be delayed, private space companies supplying rockets to NASA, such as SpaceX and Blue Origin founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, are expected to face some setbacks. On the other hand, Boeing, the ISS operator, is expected to benefit as the ISS operation contract, which was set to expire in 2024 under the Trump administration, is likely to be extended. Boeing receives about $225 million annually from the U.S. government for ISS operations. Boeing faced severe management difficulties due to a sharp decline in air travel demand after COVID-19 and laid off 6,770 employees in May.
Instead, Biden is expected to focus more on the Earth's environment. According to The Washington Post (WP), Biden stated, "The United States will recommit to fighting climate change," and declared plans to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2017, immediately after taking office. More investment is expected in environmental change research through satellites rather than space exploration. Biden's pledge to increase budgets for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is also analyzed as part of his climate change agenda.
However, the Space Force, which President Trump promoted as a national security priority, is expected to continue under Biden's administration. As a national security policy to prevent space provocations by China and Russia, it is anticipated to be maintained regardless of the administration, unlike other space policies. According to Voice of America (VOA), the Space Force was included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) amendment last December and was established through bipartisan agreement between the U.S. Republican and Democratic parties.
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