[Politics, That Day...] Why Did Songpa Become the 'Vote Sentiment Reader' in the Seoul Mayoral Election?

No Exception in All Past Elections: 'Songpa-gu 1st Place = Seoul Mayor Elected'... Songpa Population Exceeds Combined Total of Chuncheon, Gangneung, Sokcho, and Donghae

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, or figures that deserve attention.

On October 5, when Seoul apartment prices and jeonse prices continued to rise without turning downward, apartments in Songpa-gu were observed from the Lotte World Tower observatory in Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The reason why the Ohio vote drew attention in the U.S. presidential election is due to an election jinx. Since the person who won in Ohio was elected president, it was natural for the election results there to attract focus.

In Korean elections, especially the Seoul mayoral election, there is a region that must be watched closely. From the 1st nationwide simultaneous local elections to the 7th, the person elected as Seoul mayor won in this area. In other words, there has never been a case where a person who did not win here was elected Seoul mayor.

That place is Songpa-gu, Seoul. This characteristic was also reflected in the closest race in the history of Seoul mayoral elections on June 2, 2010. At that time, Han Myeong-sook of the Democratic Party and Oh Se-hoon of the Grand National Party had a neck-and-neck battle, and the confirmation of the winner was reported as breaking news only at 8:26 a.m. the day after the election.

Han Myeong-sook won in 19 out of 25 districts in Seoul but did not become the final winner. Oh Se-hoon won in 6 districts but ranked first in the final tally. Han Myeong-sook trailed Oh Se-hoon in Songpa-gu.

Oh Se-hoon received 149,228 votes (51.28%) in Songpa-gu, while Han Myeong-sook recorded 125,414 votes (43.09%). According to the counting results at the time, Oh Se-hoon won by 26,412 votes over Han Myeong-sook across all 25 districts of Seoul, with a margin of 23,814 votes in Songpa-gu alone.

On the 15th, the 21st National Assembly election was held, and officials are conducting vote counting at the counting center set up in the multipurpose badminton gymnasium in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

The 2014 Seoul mayoral election reaffirmed Songpa-gu’s ‘special presence.’ At that time, Jung Mong-joon of the Saenuri Party and Park Won-soon of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy competed for the Seoul mayor position. Jung Mong-joon raised expectations for victory based on strong support in the so-called Gangnam 3 districts: Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa.

As expected, Jung Mong-joon was dominant in Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu. However, in Songpa-gu, Park Won-soon received 174,892 votes (53.41%), while Oh Se-hoon received 150,228 votes (45.88%), with Park Won-soon taking more votes. Park Won-soon, who ranked first in Songpa-gu, also led in the final score and became Seoul mayor.

Is it a coincidence that the candidate who ranked first in Songpa-gu in past Seoul mayoral elections was elected mayor? The name Songpa-gu does not have a long history. The land of Songpa-gu originally belonged to Gwangju-gun, Gyeonggi-do, but was incorporated into Seongdong-gu, Seoul in 1963. In 1975, it was separated from Seongdong-gu to become part of Gangnam-gu, and in 1979, it belonged to Gangdong-gu.

Songpa-gu became independent from Gangdong-gu in 1988. Previously considered a southeastern suburb of Seoul, Songpa-gu developed brilliantly alongside real estate development. Large-scale apartment complexes were built, forming mini new towns in various places.

Songpa-gu is sensitive to real estate issues. Although it might be analyzed as a region relatively favorable to conservative parties, the election results over the years do not always support this. As seen in the 2014 Seoul mayoral election, Songpa-gu sometimes shows voting tendencies different from Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu.

On the 15th, the day of the 21st National Assembly election, voters are casting their ballots at a polling station set up at Hyehwa Art Center in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Songpa-gu is an area where many people from other parts of Seoul and Gyeonggi-do have moved in. Such areas tend to form public opinion following the general trend during elections. This means it often reflects the general public sentiment of the election at that time.

There is another reason to pay attention to Songpa-gu in Seoul mayoral elections. Songpa-gu has the largest population among the 25 districts of Seoul. Although it is just one district in Seoul, its population is equivalent to that of three to four major cities combined.

For example, in Gangwon-do, the combined population of representative cities Chuncheon and Gangneung, as well as popular tourist destinations Sokcho and Donghae, is less than that of Songpa-gu.

According to Statistics Korea, as of October this year, the combined registered population of Chuncheon, Gangneung, Sokcho, and Donghae is 668,554. Meanwhile, Songpa-gu’s registered population in October was 668,920.

Because Songpa-gu has a large population, it also has the highest number of voters in Seoul. In the 2018 Seoul mayoral election, Songpa-gu had 554,983 registered voters. This is about five times the number of voters in Jung-gu, Seoul.

To nurture dreams of winning the Seoul mayoral election, candidates must widen the gap with their rivals or at least maintain parity in Songpa-gu. In the most recent Seoul mayoral election, the 2018 local elections, Park Won-soon of the Democratic Party received 171,592 votes (49.61%) in Songpa-gu, ranking first.

Kim Moon-soo of the Liberty Korea Party received 90,144 votes (26.06%), and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party received 71,367 votes (20.63%). The gap between the first-place candidate and others in Songpa-gu was around 100,000 votes, making it difficult to catch up.

On the 3rd, with the clear autumn weather continuing, the autumn leaves are coloring along Wiryesung-gil in Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

While the Democratic Party enjoyed success in Songpa-gu during the 2018 local elections, it struggled in the most recent nationwide election, the 21st general election held this April. At that time, candidates from the United Future Party won in Songpa-gap and Songpa-eul districts. The Democratic Party only produced a winning member of the National Assembly in Songpa-byeong.

The 21st general election was a landslide victory for the Democratic Party in Seoul. Out of 49 National Assembly constituencies in Seoul, they won in 41. However, in Songpa-gu, they lost two out of three constituencies to the opposing party. It is worth watching whether this trend will continue in the Seoul mayoral by-election next April.

Can the People Power Party turn their strong performance in Songpa-gu next April into a reality of reclaiming the Seoul mayor’s office? Reviewing past election results, the candidate who ranked first in Songpa-gu was elected Seoul mayor, so this is a plausible scenario.

However, elections are not mathematical formulas. Although in past U.S. presidential elections, the candidate who ranked first in Ohio was elected president, this time that equation might be broken. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, won Ohio over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, but considering the nationwide electoral votes, Biden is more likely to become the next president.

Just as the tradition in the U.S. presidential election was broken this time, will the equation ‘First in Songpa-gu = Elected Seoul Mayor’ also be shaken? Or will it continue as another historical case where the candidate who ranked first in Songpa-gu is elected Seoul mayor, as there has never been an exception so far? The public sentiment in Songpa-gu is an interesting point of observation to gauge the Seoul mayoral election landscape.