[Exclusive] To Achieve Carbon Neutrality by 2050, Solar and Wind Power Facilities Must Increase 35-Fold

Carbon Neutrality Possible Only by 2070s Under Current Policy
Energy Strategy Revision Inevitable Following President Moon's Remarks
"Major Overhaul Needed for Greenhouse Gas Roadmap"
"Advocacy for Using Nuclear Power Instead of Carbon-Emitting LNG"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bo-kyung] An analysis has emerged that if the existing government goal of increasing the share of renewable energy generation to 20% by 2030 is maintained, carbon neutrality (net zero) will only be achievable by 2070. To achieve the '2050 carbon neutrality' declared by President Moon Jae-in, the plan would need to be advanced by more than 20 years. Solar and wind power facilities must also be expanded 35 times more than now. The focus on expanding renewable energy is expected to accelerate the coal phase-out and nuclear phase-out policies.

On the 5th, an official from the Ministry of Environment stated, "If the 'Renewable Energy 3020 Plan' goals are maintained as they are, carbon neutrality will only be possible in the 2070s," adding, "To bring forward carbon neutrality to 2050, additional plans must be established." The Renewable Energy 3020 Plan, announced by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy at the end of 2017, aims to increase the share of renewable energy generation from 7% in 2016 to about 20% by 2030. The 3rd Basic Energy Plan set a target of achieving 30-35% by 2040.

However, with President Moon recently declaring carbon neutrality by 2050, revisions to the energy strategy seem inevitable. This declaration was reportedly made abruptly without prior discussion with government ministries. A government official revealed regarding the meeting of related ministers (the Green Room meeting) on the 3rd, "Originally, the Green Room meeting was to discuss whether to set the 2050 carbon neutrality goal, but the President declared it, which somewhat deflated the meeting."

The government's renewable energy expansion plans have been revised repeatedly following the President's statements. In the Renewable Energy 3020 Plan, the cumulative target for solar and wind power facilities by 2025 was 29.9 GW, but with the recent announcement of the Green New Deal, it was raised to 42.7 GW. The plan for expanding solar and wind power facilities over the next 15 years will be detailed in the '9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (2020-2034)' to be announced by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy at the end of this year. A ministry official said, "After the government's major direction regarding carbon neutrality is decided, follow-up plans will be released," adding, "To reflect this in government policy, the overall framework including the greenhouse gas reduction roadmap will need to be completely revised."

There is also a research result (Korea Environment Institute, KEI) stating that to realize carbon neutrality by 2050, solar and wind power facility capacities must be built up to 305 GW and 152 GW respectively, totaling 457 GW. As of the end of last year, the capacity of solar and wind power facilities was only 13.2 GW. This means solar and wind power facilities must be expanded 35 times more than now. According to the 'Carbon Neutrality Scenario' presented by KEI, the share of renewable energy should be increased to 85% by 2050, while the share of coal power should be gradually reduced to nearly 0%. Lee Chang-hoon, a senior researcher at KEI, said, "According to the government's plan, the share of renewable energy generation will only be about 50% by 2050, which is far from sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality," adding, "There are ways to accelerate after 2030, or to gradually increase the pace starting now."

Concerns have also been raised that low-carbon policies are being pushed excessively to align with international trends. Compared to European advanced countries that have long reduced their coal power share, South Korea is at a disadvantage. The UK's coal share dropped from 28.7% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2018, and Germany's from 52.8% to 38.2% during the same period. South Korea's coal power share was 41.9% as of 2018.

Professor Lee Deok-hwan, Emeritus Professor at Sogang University, pointed out, "The best means to absorb greenhouse gases is to cultivate forests, but 27 times the area of Yeouido has been encroached upon for solar power deployment." Professor Sung Poong-hyun of KAIST said, "The government is moving to reduce nuclear and coal power and increase renewable energy and LNG power to achieve carbon neutrality, but carbon is also emitted during LNG power generation." He added, "When weather conditions do not support solar and wind power, using nuclear power to generate electricity instead is necessary to reduce carbon."