[Global Issue+] China and India: From 'Non-alignment' Partners to Archrivals

India, Military Agreement with the US... Non-Alignment Principle Broken
China's Belt and Road to Contain India... Accelerating Closer Ties with the US

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Since India gained independence from Britain in 1947, it has consistently upheld the diplomatic principle of non-alignment and neutrality. However, this principle has been broken as India signed a military agreement to share satellite intelligence with the United States, raising concerns that relations with China will further deteriorate. Although the two countries fought a war in 1962 over a border dispute, the intensification of their conflict?both of which represented the so-called Third World as major partners of the non-alignment policy during the Cold War?is expected to bring significant changes to the security landscape of Central and Southeast Asia.

According to foreign media including CNN, on the 27th of last month (local time), U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper held a 2+2 meeting in New Delhi with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, signing the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), a military pact for sharing satellite and military geographic information. This agreement marks the fourth military pact between the two countries. Previously, they signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2002, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018.

Notably, through this agreement, India can now share U.S. military satellite intelligence, which is crucial for operating U.S.-made missiles, fighter jets, and drones. This opens the door for the U.S. to export more advanced weapons to India in the future. Originally, there were no arms deals between the two countries until 2008, but since then, they have rapidly increased, with this year’s total exceeding $20 billion. According to a weapons export report submitted by the U.S. State Department to Congress, this year the U.S. exported various strategic weapons to India, including radar air defense systems, missiles and lightweight torpedoes, helicopters, naval guns, and C-17 transport aircraft. With this agreement, unmanned bombers like the Predator (MQ-1) are also expected to be sold to India soon.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

In fact, India was hesitant about this agreement. The U.S. had been pushing for the pact since last year, but the Indian government had been rejecting it. Sharing satellite intelligence with the U.S. and importing its advanced weapons would effectively mean openly joining the U.S. anti-China front, breaking India’s long-standing diplomatic policy of non-alignment since its founding. However, after a series of bloody clashes with China in the Himalayan border region in May and June of this year, the Indian government accepted the U.S. proposal for the agreement.

Although India and China fought a war over a border dispute in 1962, their relationship during the Cold War was generally considered not hostile. Since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister and regarded as the Father of the Nation, advocated non-alignment and neutrality, the two countries were known as pillars of the Third World, distinct from the First World representing the U.S. and Western Europe, and the Second World representing the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc communist countries. While non-alignment was often seen as a symbolic declaration rather than a practical policy, many Asian and African countries that experienced Western colonial rule participated. Subsequently, the border disputes between China and India did not seriously surface.

However, as China’s power grew, India’s stance began to change. Since China launched the Belt and Road Initiative (land and maritime Silk Road) in the 2000s, it has grown closer to Pakistan, India’s archrival, and started to control port operations and deploy warships in Sri Lanka and various Southeast Asian countries, effectively surrounding India. According to Foreign Policy, the Chinese government has deployed troops to some military bases in key border areas between Pakistan and India and is conducting joint exercises with the Pakistani military. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has been building highways and railways in succession under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, deploying massive troops near the border areas with India.

However, India is much less capable of countering China. Although India is also expanding its military and has become the world’s second-largest arms importer after Saudi Arabia, purchasing a large amount of weapons, it still lags significantly behind China in terms of economic and military power. Moreover, the worsening COVID-19 pandemic, with India’s cumulative confirmed cases exceeding 8 million?second only to the U.S.?has caused severe damage, making it impossible for India to take China’s security threat lightly.

Now, as winter approaches the Himalayas, the dispute between the two countries is expected to shift to the Indian Ocean. According to the Indian local media Hindustan Times, at the end of last month, the Indian Ministry of Defense announced that with temperatures dropping below freezing in the Himalayas and the onset of winter, the likelihood of disputes in the border area with China has decreased, and future security focus will be on the Indian Ocean border area with Pakistan. India, which has also joined the Quad?a U.S.-led anti-China security alliance?plans to hold naval joint exercises with these countries. As the bilateral dispute merges with the U.S. anti-China front, concerns are growing that tensions with China will escalate further in the future.